Weekly F&O Expiry:Nifty Analysis

FII bought 3.2 K contract of Index Future worth 298 cores, Net OI has increased by 1.7 K contract 762 Long contract were covered by FII and 2.4 K Shorts were added by FII. Net FII Long Short ratio at 2.1 so FII used FALL to EXIT longs and ENTER shorts.

As discussed in Last Analysis For Swing Traders Bulls need to move above 18468 for a rally towards 18536/18604. Bears will get active below 18377 for a move back to 18329/18240/18102. We got the big move as per expectation, High amde was 18458 so bulls unable to break 18468 and bears once below 18377 did 2 target on downside and we also got 200 points below Monday low Double Ingress For Swing Traders Now Bears need to break 18197 for a move towards 18130/18062/18028. Bulls will have change above 18322 for a move back to 18400/18467

Intraday time for reversal can be at 10:06/11:20/12:36/1:27/2/2:38 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

MAX Pain is at 18300 PCR at 0.91 ,PCR below 0.9 and above 1.3 lead to trending moves, and in between leads to range bound markets.

Nifty Oct Future Open Interest Volume is at 1.10 Cores with liquidation of 9.81 Lakh with increase in cost of carry suggesting LONG positions were closed today.

There is total OI of 6.3 Cores on the Call side and 3.64 Cores on the Put side, So, the activity is more on the CALL side, indicating option writers are in Bearish zone.

The Option Table data indicates decent support at 18200 and reasonable resistance at 18400.

Nifty has rallied 704 points in last 5 trading sessions and FII has bought just 1549 cr and DII’s jhave sold 5000 cr worth of equities so rally is driven by Retailers and today we had the highest Cash market volumes suggesting time to be cautious as rally is not driven by Instituions. This was a timely caution.

Retailers have bought 484 K CE contracts and 390 K CE contracts were shorted by them on Put Side Retailers bought 7.5 K PE contracts and 44 K PE contracts were shorted by them suggesting having BULLISH outlook,On Flip Side FII sold 1.6 K CE contracts and 27.2 K CE were shorted by them, On Put side FII’s bought 1.9 K PE and 12 K shorted PE were covered by them suggesting they have a turned to BEARISH Bias.

For Positional Traders Stay long till we are holding Trend Change Level 17982 and stay short below it. That will help you stay on the side of Institutions and which has a greater risk-reward ratio. For Intraday Traders 18346 will act as a Intraday Trend Change Level.

Buy Above 18289 Tgt 18311, 18333 and 18377 (Nifty Spot Levels)