Nifty Weekly F&O Expiry Analysis Explained

By | October 13, 2021 9:30 pm

  • FII bought 13.3 K contract of Index Future worth 1205 cores, Net OI has increased by 10.8 K contract 11.7 K Long contract were added by FII and 947  Shorts were added by FII. Net FII Long Short ratio at 1.73 so FII used rise to enter longs and exit shorts.
  • As discussed in Last Analysis  Nifty formed an Inside bar today unable to break yesterday’s high and low but was able to close above 17972 and now waiting for the target of 18040/18107/18174. Bears will have chance below 17841 for a move back to 17774/17707/17641. All Bullish target done as we saw the impact of Saturn Ingress, Now Bulls need to move above 18185 for a move back to 18252/18320/18388. Bears will get active below 18063 for a move back to 17996/17929/17862. Friday is trading holiday. 

  • MAX Pain is at 18100 PCR at 0.9, The PCR is in the neutral zone of 0.95 OI Breakout zone 17975 closed above it. Another 200 points above OI breakout zone. 
  • Nifty Oct Future Open Interest Volume is at 1.24 Cores with addition of 1.2 Lakh with decrease in cost of carry suggesting LONG positions were added today.
  • There is total OI of 4.19 Cores on the Call side and 5.82  Cores on the Put side, So, the activity is more on the Put side, indicating option writers are bullishly confident.
  • The Option Table data indicates decent support at 18100  and reasonable resistance at 18300 .The option table is undergoing a real transformation – with each day one PE level is targeted with huge volumes of writing and the strike is giving way to much lower strikes.
  • Many people know that FII’s control the ebb and flow of the markets, but what many people do not read is the trades executed by these institutions in futures and options which have a large bearing on the immediate trend like 17604 was Rollover low  and we made exact low of 17603 NF on 07 Oct and rallied
  • Retailers have bought 60.1 K CE contracts and 58.8 K CE contracts were shorted by them on Put Side Retailers bought 228 K PE contracts and 187 K PE contracts were shorted by them suggesting having BEARISH outlook,On Flip Side FII bought 51.6 K CE contracts and 35.4 K CE were shorted by them, On Put side FII’s bought 26.1 K PE and 40.2 K PE were shorted by them suggesting they have a turned to BULLISH Bias.
  • FII bought 937 crore and DII sold 431 cores. USD Closed at 75.49.
  • For Positional Traders Stay long till we are holding Trend Change Level 17812 and stay short below it. That will help you stay on the side of Institutions and which has a greater risk-reward ratio. For Intraday Traders 18144 will act as a Intraday Trend Change Level.

Buy Above 18190 Tgt 18222, 18252 and 18283 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell  Below  18148 Tgt 18121, 18099 and 18066 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Upper End of Expiry : 18315

Lower End of Expiry : 18009

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