Nifty Bears finally close below 8577,EOD Analysis


  • FII’s bought 15.8 K contract of Index Future worth 1051 cores ,12.3 K Long contract were added by FII’s and 3.5 K short contracts were liquidated by FII’s. Net Open Interest increased  by 8.7  K contract, so fall in market was used by FII’s to enter long and exit shorts  in  Index futures. How to create new habits?
  •  As discussed in Yesterday Analysis   Bulls above 8723 can see move till 8851/8900, bears below 8577 can see move till 8520/8484. Its been 24 days we have traded in range of 204 points 8517-8721,Low made today was 8547 and close below near our important gann level of 8577 , suggesting bears are having upper hand after long time. Nifty can fall below 8520/8484. Bulls need to wait for break of 8711-8723 range for further upmove. Bank Nifty Bulls Bears keep fight on, Which side will give up ?

nifty impulsive move

  • Nifty Sep Future Open Interest Volume is at 2.72  core with addition of 9.1 Lakh with increase in cost of carry suggesting long position were added today, NF Rollover cost @8686, closed below it. Here is an interesting observation on Nifty OI, Nifty is having the Highest OI of 2.72 Cores in 2016. Highest OI seen in last 2 years is 27814575 which was seen on  03 March 2015 one day before Nifty made top of 9119. Now twist in tale, last time we rallied from 8669-9119 in 5 trading sessions move of 450 points before the High OI was made, Now in current scenario we had not done anything in past 22 trading sessions suggesting Market is not heavily long on one side but lot of hedges are made to prepare for a eventual black swan event. So lets see how the coming 2 weeks pan out.
  • 9000  CE  is having Highest OI  at 41  lakh, resistance at 9000 .8500/9000 CE  added 34 lakh so resistance formation in 8800-8900 zone .FII bought 12.6  K CE longs and 22.4 K CE were shorted by them .Retail bought 47.1 K CE contracts and 47.2  K shorted CE were covered  by them.
  • 8500 PE OI@48.5 lakhs having the highest OI strong support at 8500. 8300-8800 PE added 46 Lakh in OI so bulls making strong base near 8550-8500 zone .FII bought 37.9  K PE longs  and 16.4 K PE were shorted by them .Retail bought 25  K PE contracts and 54.5 K PE were shorted by them.
  • FII’s bought 341 cores in Equity and DII’s sold 266  cores in cash segment.INR closed at 67.06

Buy above 8582 Tgt 8614,8650 and 8689 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 8539 Tgt 8505,8465 and 8450 (Nifty Spot Levels)

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  1. Bramesh said:

    thanks a lot !!

    Just a normal person sir.. no superlatives plz..

    August 29, 2016
  2. Bramesh said:

    thanks a lot for sharing !!

    August 28, 2016
  3. Sudhakar said:

    Sir We Are All Awaiting For Your Reply

    August 28, 2016
  4. Shiva said:

    Awesome analysis…
    Please throw some light on possibilities of this event, so that your blog readers will be benefitted and saved.thnks

    August 28, 2016
  5. Raajjesh Shinde said:

    A black swan is an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is extremely difficult to predict; the term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor, writer and former Wall Street trader. Black swan events are typically random and are unexpected.
    Till the time Australia was not discovered it was an accepted fact that swans are white in color but when Australia was discovered the initial explorers where shocked to see black swans
    hence the terms black swan meaning all together different from accepted belief or logic hence black swan events cant be predicted but an event after having occurred can be termed as a black swan event

    August 28, 2016
  6. Paritosh said:

    Black swan event ? please put some more light .

    August 28, 2016
  7. Sundaresan said:

    Sir.. Could you explain more on ‘Black Swan event’

    August 27, 2016
  8. Hiren said:

    Fed’s comments have been very sensible.

    I think benefit of doubt should be given for few points here or there of 8577.

    PCR is too much, but the charts are indicating opposite…..what wins ? lets see tomorrow.

    August 27, 2016
  9. Sudhakar said:

    Nice Topic… Sir…

    Had Understood your topic… Especially 3rd Paragraph…

    Really Once Again Hats Off to your Analysis… You are a Genious.

    August 27, 2016
  10. mcaashutosh said:

    what are the possible “eventual black swan event”

    August 27, 2016

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