Every movement in the market is the result of natural law and a Cause which exists long before the Effect takes place and can be determined years in advance. The future is but a repetition of the past.
MAJOR TIME CYCLES
There must always be a major and a minor, a greater and a lesser, a positive and a negative. In order to be accurate in forecasting the future, you must know the major cycles. The most money is made when fast moves and extreme fluctuations occur at the end of major cycles.
I have experimented and compared past markets in order to locate the major and minor cycles and determine what years in the cycles repeat in the future. After years of research and practical tests, I have discovered that the following cycles are the most reliable to use:
GREAT CYCLE – MASTER TIME PERIOD – 60 YEARS:
This is the greatest and most important cycle of all, which repeats every 60 years or at the end of the third 20-year Cycle. You will see the importance of this by referring to the war period from 1861 to 1869 and the panic following 1869; also 60 years later – 1921 to 1929 – the greatest bull market in history and the greatest panic in history followed. This proves the accuracy and value of this great time period.
A major cycle occurs every 49 to 50 years. A period of “jubilee” years of extremely high or low prices, lasting from 5 to 7 years, occurs at the end of the 50-year cycle. “7” is a fatal number referred to many times in the Bible. It brings about contraction, depression and panic. Seven times “7” equals 49, which is shown as the fatal evil year, causing extreme fluctuations.
The 30-year cycle is very important because it is one-half of the 60-year cycle or Great Cycle and contains three 10-year cycles. In making up an annual forecast of a stock, you should always make a comparison with the record 30 years back.
One of the most important Time Cycles is the 20-year cycle or 240 months. Most stocks and the averages work closer to this cycle than to any other.
Fifteen years is three-fourths of a 20-year cycle and most important because it is 180 months or one-half of a circle.
The next important major cycle is the 10-year cycle, which is one-half of the 20-year cycle and one-sixth of the 6-year cycle. It is also very important because it is 120 months or one-third of a circle. Fluctuations of the same nature occur which produce extreme high or low every 10 years. Stocks come out remarkably close on each even 10-year cycle.
This cycle is 84 months. You should watch 7 years from any important top and bottom. 42 months or one- half of this cycle is very important. You will find many culminations around the 42nd month. 21 months or ¼ of this cycle is also important. The fact that some stocks make top or bottom 10 to 11 months from the previous top or bottom is due to the fact that this period is one-eighth of the 7-year cycle.
There is an 84-year Cycle, which is 12 times the 7-year Cycle, that is very important to watch. One-half of this cycle is 42 years – ¼ is 21 years, and 1/8 is 10 ½ years. This is one of the reasons for the period of nearly 11 years between the bottom of August 1921 and the bottom of July 1932. A variation of this kind often occurs at the end of a Great Cycle or 60 years. Bottoms and tops often come out on the angle of 135 degrees or around the 135th month or 11 ¼-year periods from any important top or bottom.
This cycle is very important because it is one-half of the 10-year cycle and ¼ of the 20-year cycle. The smallest compete cycle or work-out in a market is 5 years.
The minor cycles are 3 years and 6 years. The smallest cycle is one year, which often shows a change in the 10th or 11th month.
RULES FOR FUTURE CYCLES
Stocks move in 10-year cycles, which are worked out in 5-year cycles – a 5-year cycle up and a 5-year cycle down. Begin with extreme tops and extreme bottoms to figure all cycles, either major or minor.
Rule 1 – A bull campaign generally runs 5 years – 2 years up, 1 year down, and 2 years up, completing a 5-year cycle. The end of a 5-year campaign comes in the 59th or 60th months. Always watch for the change in the 59th month.
Rule 2 – A bear cycle often runs 5 years down – the first move 2 years down, then 1 year up, and 2 years down, completing the 5-year downswing.
Rule 3 – Bull or bear campaigns seldom run more than 3 to 3 ½ years up or down without a move of 3 to 6 months or one year in the opposite direction, except at the end of Major Cycles, like 1869 and 1929. Many campaigns culminate in the 23rd month, not running out the full two years. Watch the weekly and monthly charts to determine whether the culmination will occur in the 23rd, 24th, 27th or 30th month of the move, or in extreme campaigns in the 34thto 35th or 41st to 42nd month.
Rule 4 – Adding 10 years to any top, it will give you top of the next 10-year cycle, repeating about the same average fluctuations.
Rule 5 – Adding 10 years to any bottom, it will give you the bottom of the next 10-year cycle, repeating the same kind of a year and about the same average fluctuations.
Rule 6 – Bear campaigns often run out in 7-year cycles, or 3 years and 4 years from any complete bottom. From any complete bottom of a cycle, first add 3 years to get the next bottom; then add 4 years to that bottom to get the bottom of the 7-year cycle. For example 1914 bottom – add 3 years, gives 1917, low of panic; then add 4 years to 1917, gives 1921, low of another depression.
Rule 7 – To any final major or minor top, add 3 years to get the next top; then add 3 years to that top, which will give the third top; add 4 years to the third top to get the final top of a 10-year cycle. Sometimes a change in trend from any top occurs before the end of the regular time period, therefore you should begin to watch the 27th, 34th and 42nd months for a reversal.
Rule 8 – Adding 5 years to any top, it will give the next bottom of a 5-year cycle. In order to get top of the next 5-year cycle, add 5 years to any bottom. For example, 1917 was the bottom of a big bear campaign; add 5 years gives 1922, top of a minor bull campaign. Why do I say, “Top of a minor bull campaign?” Because the major bull campaign was due to end in 1929.
1919 was top; adding 5 years to 1919 gives 1924 as a bottom of a 5-year bear cycle. Refer to Rules 1 and 2, which tell you that a bull or bear campaign seldom runs more than 2 to 3 years in the same direction. The bear campaign from 1919 was 2 years down – 1920 and 1921; therefore, we only expect the one-year rally in 1922; then two years down – 1923 and 1924 which completes the 5-year bear cycle. Looking back to 1913 and 1914, you will see that 1923 and 1924 must be bear years to complete the 10- year cycle from the bottoms of 1913-14. Then, note 1917 bottom of a bear year; adding 7 years gives 1924 also as the bottom of a bear cycle. Then, adding 5 years to 1924 gives 1929 top of a cycle.
FORECASTING WEEKLY MOVES
The weekly movement gives the next important minor change in trend, which may turn out to be a major change in trend.
In a bull market, a stock will often run down 2 to 3 weeks, and possibly 4, then reverse and follow the main trend again. As a rule, the trend will turn up in the middle of the third week and close higher at the end of the third week, the stock only moving 3 weeks against the main trend. In some cases the change in trend will not occur until the fourth week; then the reversal will come and the stock closed higher at the end of the fourth week.
Reverse this rule in a bear market.
In rapid markets with big volume, a move will often run 6 to 7 weeks before a minor reversal in trend, and in some cases, like 1929, these fast moves last 13 to 15 weeks or ¼ of a year. These are culmination moves up or down.
As there are 7 days in a week and seven times seven equals 49 days or 7 weeks, this often marks an important turning point. Therefore you should watch for top or bottom around the 49th to 52nd day, altho at times a change will start on the 2nd to 45th day because a period of 45 days is 1/8 of a year. Also, watch for culmination at the end of 90 to 98 days.
After a market has declined 7 weeks, it may have 2 or 3 short weeks on the side and then turn up, which agrees with the monthly rule for a change in the third month.
Always watch the annual trend of stock and consider whether it is in a bull or bear year. In a bull year, with the monthly chart showing up, there are many times that a stock will react 2 or 3 weeks, then rest 3 or 4 weeks, and then go into new territory and advance 6 to 7 weeks more.
After a stock makes the top and reacts 2 to 3 weeks, it may then have a rally of 2 to 3 weeks without getting above the first top, then hold in a trading range for several weeks without crossing the highest top or breaking the lowest week of that range. In cases of this kind, you can buy near the low point or sell near the high point of that range and protect with a stop loss order 1 to 3 points away. However, a better plan would be to wait until the stock shows a definite trend before buying or selling; then buy the stock when it crosses the highest point or sell when it breaks the lowest point of that trading range.
FORECASTING DAILY MOVES
The daily movement gives the first minor change and conforms to the same rules as the weekly and monthly cycles, altho it is only a minor part of them.
In fast markets, there will be a 2-day move in the opposite direction to the main trend and on the third day, the upward or downward course will be resumed in harmony with the main trend.
A daily movement may reverse the trend and only run 7 to 10 days; then follow the main trend again. During a month, natural changes in trends occur around 6th to 7th 14thto 15th 23rdto 24th 9thto 10th 19thto 20th 29th to 31st.
Those minor moves occur in accordance with tops and bottoms of individual stocks.
It is very important to watch for a change in trend 30 days from the last top or bottom. Then watch for changes 60, 90, 120 days from tops or bottoms. 180 days or six months – very important and sometimes marks changes for greater moves. Also around the 270th and 330th
day from important tops or bottoms, you should watch for important minor and often major changes.
January 2nd to 7th and 15thto 21st:
Watch these periods each year and note the high and low prices made. Until these high prices are crossed or low prices broke, consider the trend up or down.
Many times when stocks make low in the early part of January, this low will not be broken until the following July or August and sometimes not during the entire year. This same rule applies in bear markets or when the main trend is down. High prices made in the early part of January are often high for the entire year and are not crossed until after July or August. For example:
U. S. Steel on January 2, 1930, made a low at 166, which was the half-way point from 1921 to 1929, and again on January 7, 1930, declined to 167 ¼. When this level was broken, Steel indicated lower prices. July 3rd to 7th and 20th to 27th: The month of July, like January, is a month when most dividends are paid and investors usually buy stocks around the early part of the month. Watch those periods in July for tops or bottoms and a change in trend. Go back over the charts and see how many times changes have taken place in July, 180 days from January tops or bottoms. For example:
July 8, 1932, was low; July 17, 1933, high; and July 26, 1934 low of the market.
Source: Gann Time cycles