Rajan announced that he won’t be accepting second term as RBI Governor and plans to return back to academia,which might rattle both stock market and currency market.
Since 1992 RBI governors are appointed for 3 years and get extension for 2 years. Mr Rajan will be the first governor who will not get extension since 1992.
On 5 September 2013 he took charge as the 23rd Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, under whom Indian Rupee become pretty stable and inflation declined from High of 9% to Low of 3.5%.
Lets see how stock market welcomed Governor.
Nifty
Nifty made low of 5118 on 28 Aug made Long term bottom and rallied till 6142 on 19-Sep, Rally of 1024 points in 17 trading sessions. On 05 Sep Nifty was up by 150 points when Mr Rajan Took office.So going by sheer number we should see considerable impact on Bank Nifty on Monday.
As we have been saying till we do not close above 8210 we are in negative gann cycle and correct all the way till 8029/7975/7852 in worst case.
Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty made low of 8366 on 28 Aug, and rallied all the way till 11219 on 19 Sep so a rally of 2853 points. Bank Nifty was up 836 points or 9.46% on the day Mr Rajan took office. So going by sheer number we should see considerable impact on Bank Nifty on Monday.
Great Observations. Market is way over valued and this could be the excuse along with Brexit for a more meaningful pull back.
Market existed before Rajan and shall be there after him also…Modi is not that stupid to upset his apple cart with one wrong decision…surely Modi wud have an ace up his sleeves in this issue also…Just keep the fingers crossed..High int rates stifled our economy to the detriment of many businesses
FIIS firmly trusted Mr. Rajan and poured money in to the market. They have started their journey of reducing their positions which is evident from previous two weak’s trading figures atleast there is no fresh buying. It seems they were speculating Rajan’s moves. Now the situations are ripe for small correction. Calling Rajan as agent of this and that is unkind it would be kind to call our dirty politicians in that language. Any how a prudent trader does not matter who comes in and who goes out. men may come and men may go but a prudent trader mints money for ever.
In short term there could be an impact on INR. But having Americal agent as our Governor is more harmful. Let’s get ready to welcome an true Indian as who is willing to work for India and Indians as new Governor of RBI.
What makes you say that he is an American agent? Don’t just say things for the sake of it.
He is one of the best or maybe the best RBI governor there has been. He took the right difficult decision of maintaining interest rates to control inflation. Inflation is an enemy of common man. And if u don’t know that, well u need education.
Lowest Commodities & crude Prices was a chance for India to grow max But very high interest rate by RBI Governor wasted that opportunity
OD limit was stopped by present governor and it destroyed many business..
In fact, it is the govt which wasted the opportunity of passing on lower crude prices to the public, which would have helped both in consumer spending and curbing inflation which would have resulted in lowering interest rates. Instead Mr. Jaitley used it in lowering his deficit targets. Economic revival is more important than collecting taxes which the Govt completely failed at. Targeting Rajan is a lame excuse.
Goverment did the right things.. They used that money in building roads and infrastructure.. Please do proper research before commenting based on emotions. If you observe US growth in mid of 70-80 it was high investment in infrastructure.. Goverment is following the same path.. Its short term pain and long term pain..
Rgds,
Bramesh
You seemed to have been carried over by emotions more than me. Pls do your research on where the spent was. Please look at the budget allocations atleast before commenting. Dont get carried over by pro Govt false data..
Regds,
Shankar
Mr Bramesh, You mean Commodities & Crude stocks will rally after Rajans exit right?
I think market rallied due to Modi factor NOT because of R3! We all know what R3s contribution to Indian economy is.
Bramesh Sir,
I have heard that a chart says it all. You should stick to technical analysis.
We respect you and consider each of your written word with care.
Also, at the time of August Expiry, there were lot of factors into the play. On August 2013 expiry day, Nifty started run from its bottom primarily because US President Obama made announcements that US will not directly intervene into Lybian fight due to which crude volatility decreased leading to cooling off of USDINR sliding. Correct me if I am wrong.
Yes, I agree that Nifty welcomed Rajan with 100 points rally. You should have at least mentioned these factors too.
While you considered past moves, what wanted to say that you should have at least told what maxmim upside and downside are visible on charts presently.
That would have made this post more distinguished.
Thanks.
Price has History, those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
The main aim of putting the post was how prices reacted when MR Rajan took office, now when he is leaving office what kind of reaction we can accept from market.
Reading historical charts prepare you better to deal with market moves.
Also if you read the post properly with full concentration you will see i have mentioned nifty levels on downside..
Markets goes up, they have to come down, if not Rajan, something else, One should not expect markets to go up Everytime
It’s like going against the law of Nature..
Will Nifty head to 7800 because of one man?
Market is a Wild Elephant it moves where it has to go, As a trader your job is to get maximum out of the move..
Yes my friend, one man can change the History of a Civilization or a Nation. Remember Mahatma Gandhi, Christopher Columbus, Martin Luther King, Nelson Mandela, Adolf Hitler, etc
Never estimate anybody. A man is more than what you see. He is Brahma, if you wish to pursue another line of thought.
Look at Mr.Rajan’s face. What do you see?
What should be the strategy for open long positions in bank nifty with this overnight decision
Watch out for 17350 levels..
Hate this kind of surprises. You are in a position where each letter of yours is analysed, a more open approach is required from a person holding such high offices. High positions will always draw aaccolades and criticism. Maturity to deal both with equanimity is expected.
So we all enjoyed the rally when he joined but are reluctant to accept the downside if he leaves. He had to notify / kill the rumor in advance if not today then next week – so what is the point of disappointment. We all know of the well planned double game being played with him thus creating controversies since last month.I think this would have been the only dignified way any self respecting person will do.
Absolutely right Mr. Gulshan Mehta. Any self respecting person would not have had any other option.
Mr.Rajan is a scholar first and an accomplished one. No one with such credentials would like to be dragged into political games. He did the best.
Nice analysis sir