Nifty breaks 50 SMA, FII Data Analysis

• FII’s sold 72009 contract of Index Future worth 2720 cores, 44.4  K Long contract were squared off and 27.5  K short contracts were added by FII’s. Net Open Interest decreased  by 16.9  K contract.FII’s went into panic mode today after a big gap down and squared off Huge Long Position in Index Futures which were getting rollovered from March Series. This Kind of single day selling was seen way back in 2010 so looks quiet scary.The surprising thing is that NF range today was just 58 points and we saw no major decline in Nifty after gap down suggesting FII’s were able to exit there long position without creating any major panic in market.

• Nifty closed below its 50 DMA, after big gap down today, Here is the interesting part Last time NS broke its 50 SMA was on 27-Jan with a gap down and corrected almost 255 points or 5% to make major low @ 5933 in 7 trading session and started the big rally till 7836 Today also NS broke its 50 SMA with a gap down Will History Repeat ?   As per EW we can start the iii wave on hourly chart with break of 7595 which can take all the way to 7503.
  

 

• Nifty Future Aug Open Interest Volume is at 1.22 cores with liquidation of 8.8 lakh suggesting long liquidation with increase in CoC. VIX being very low suggests bulls are still overconfident and every dip is getting bought into.
  

• Total Future & Option trading volume was   at 1.96   lakh core with total contract traded at 2.60 lakh. PCR @0.87.

• 8000  CE  OI at 55.8  lakh  suggesting wall of resistance , 7600 CE saw addition of 12.9 lakh  suggesting bears are getting stronger @ 7600.FII’s bought 1.9 K CE longs and 13.6 K  CE were  shorted  by   them. Huge short in CE needs to be taken by caution.
  

• 7500 PE OI@ 55 lakhs saw liquidation of 2.8 lakh suggest bulls are getting jittery near 7500 , 7600 PE has 9 lakh liquidation in OI,  and 7700 PE also liquidated  7 lakh OI , suggesting if nifty opens with gap on MOnday will get sold into..FII’s bought 42.4 K contract  PE longs and 11.7 K  shorted  PE were covered  by them.Again FII are covering shorted PE and shorting CE suggests net to net basis going short in Nifty in Option segment also.

• FIIs sold 503 cores in Equity and DII bought 456 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 61.14.
  

• Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 7588 (For Intraday Traders). NF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 7696  and BNF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 15215 .How to trade Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures as per Trend Changer Level . 
  

 

Buy above 7570 Tgt 7592,7625 and 7650 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 7540 Tgt 7515, 7489 and 7450 (Nifty Spot Levels)

 

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