Infosys Q2 Results will be declared before Friday market opening this will be first result after Narayana Murthy took over the rein of Infy,stock having risen 25% in the past three months
Infosys is famous for Wild swing after the Quarter results as shown in below chart . Past 3 Quarters have been market with Huge gap up and gap downs by more than 10%. So trading in Infosys is playing with fire 1 day before results day 🙂
Most of traders use the option route to trade Infosys so am discussing what option data is revealing 2 days before results.
Option Market Analysis
Open interest on Infosys options rose by 41.5% on Wednesday, two days ahead of the company’s results announcement. The implied volatility of ATM options is at 60-65%, which implies that traders expect a sharp swing in Infosys shares on Friday. Option premiums are now so high that the stock will have to move by well more than 15% for straddle buyers to profit. In a straddle position, traders buy both a call and a put option, expecting to profit from a sharp move in either direction but with such high IV’s it does not make a good risk to reward ratio to Buy straddle and hence traders should avoid the same.
Daily Chart
Infy is taking support at its Fibo Fan and Any move above 3194 gives short term target of 3300 and 3561.
Weekly Chart Time Analysis
Time analysis on Weekly chart is shown, It seems Nifty has created its short term top and any close below 2961 stock will correct till 2817 odd levels. So 3194 is the level to be watched on.
Intraday Traders can use the below mentioned levels.
Buy above 3132 Tgt 3157,3190 and 3232 SL 3109
Sell below 3080 Tgt 3060,3040 and 3000 SL 3109
Dear Bramesh,
Must admit that it was a very good insight and analysis on your part
about Infosys BEFORE the results were announced.
I shall however appreciate if you could answer a couple of queries:
1. You wrote that the Implied Volatility of ATM Options is/was at 60-65%, would it mean therefore that the Implied Volatility of an OTM Option may have been even greater than 65%
2. Ideally, is there any kind of benchmark as to what should be the ideal percentage as far as Implied Volatility is concerned when one plans to buy an ATM or OTM Options under such circumstances or even under normal circumstances.
I shall be very much obliged if you could kindly reply to the above.
Thanks and Best Regards
Dear Johnson,
Yes thats always the case, IV’s should be between 25-25 range in normal scenarios.
Rgds,
Bramesh
Dear Sir,
Good work.
I think, if one wants to take a position before Friday, well a Long strangle could have been suggested. But as U rightly mentioned, the premiums are very high.
Well on results day one may not get the levels indicated.
Thanks.
Su Saravana Perumaal
Dear Sir,
We got the level of 3194 as discussed and trade was taken 🙂 All Options collapsed even though Infy went up..
Rgds,
Bramesh
Very good great work bramesh keel it up