FII F&O Analysis before RBI March 2013 Policy



1. FIIs sold 23908  Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 699 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 16992 contracts. Financial Markets around the world, were rocked by Cyprus bailout, Read more about What is Cyprus Bailout Crisis

2. As CNX Nifty Future was down by 45 points, with Open Interest in Index Futures increasing by 16992 so FII have created fresh  shorts  in today’s session at lower levels.So they are entering the RBI policy with negative view and any good news can trigger an upside rally.

3. NS closed at 5835 after  making high of 5850 and low of 5814,Nifty opened gap down remained in tight range throughout the session, Gap from 5850-5873 remain unfilled.Nifty has also formed NR7 day signaling range expansion which generally happens on policy day. Nifty is trading below both its short and long term moving averages signifying the weak technical structure of Nifty. As discussed in Weekly analysis, Symmetrical triangle has broken on downside and we need to see follow up move in tommrow’s session.

4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5852 and 5873 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5814 and 5784.Trend remains range bound  As per OI analysis getting signal of range bound move in range of 5820-5971.

5. Nifty Future March Open Interest Volume is at 1.52 cores with addition of  2.86  lakh in Open Interest with fall in Cost of Carry of Nifty Future  to showing traders have added  short positions in Index Futures.

6. Total Future & Option trading volume at 1.30 lakh Cores with total contract traded 1.71 lakh , PCR (Put to Call Ratio) at 1.14 and VIX at 15.85

7. 6000 Nifty CE  is having highest OI at 85.8 Lakh with addition of  9 Lakhs, 5900 CE added 4.11 lakhs having OI of  63.1 lakhs ,5800 CE also added 3.7 lakhs in OI.5500-6200 Call Options added  16.3 lakhs in OI.

8. 5700 Put Option is having highest  Open Interest of  1.08 cores with liquidation  of 0.08 lakhs in OI  5700 is wall of Support , 5800 PE  added 2.3  lakhs with  OI  at 88.2 lakhs and 5900 PE liquidated  5.9  lakhs in OI with net OI at 48.7  lakhs suggesting smart money liquidating position, 5500-5600 PE both combined added 14 lakh in OI before the RBI policy so we can see an spike on downside. 5500-6200 Put Options added 6 lakhs in OI.

9. FIIs bought in Equity in tune of 506 cores,and DII sold 460 cores in cash segment,INR closed at 54.1 Live INR Chart for market hours and currency traders

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5860(For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5851 NF(For Positional Traders). (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand). Bank Nifty Future Trend Changer Level 11892.As per trend changer level shorts were created.

Buy above 5852 Tgt 5873, 5954,5900

Sell below 5814 Tgt 5800,5784 and 5760 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Traders who use Pivot and Camarilla can use the following 2 sites for Hourly values and EOD values

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