RBI macro view on Indian Economy was out today and the most important take away was:
“Monetary policy needs to be cautious in the interim, focusing on inflation while using the available space to support growth to the degree it can,”
It indicates interest rates are likely to go down but will it be tomorrow as Diwali gift, Mystery will be resolved tomorrow 11 AM.
1. FII sold 4589 Contracts of Index Future,worth 120 cores with net OI decreasing by 7175 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 3 points and Open Interest in Index Futures decreased by 7175, so FII again liquidated longs which were rollovered from October series.Nifty formed a doji candle pattern which is signaling indecision with regards to the trend of Nifty ahead of tomorrow’s key event of RBI’s mid quarterly policy review.
3. NS closed at 5666 after making a high of 5698 and low of 5645.Nifty spot again was unable to break 5725 and 5638 so still trading within the range of 5635-5725.Tomorrow event RBI can again push Nifty to higher end of range, Nifty is expected to make volatile moves 15 mins before the news come out so traders are requested to take position only after news is out and protect your capital from whipsawing trades.
4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5698 and 5725 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5651 and 5635 .Trend is Sell on Rise till 5725 is not broken on closing basis.
5. Nifty Future November Open Interest is at 1.78 cores with liquidation of 1.6lakh in OI,long liquidation in NF. Only concern is 40 points premium is NF which denotes extreme level of Bullishness in market participants so caution is advised in long positions.
6. Total F&O turnover was at 0.77 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 1.49 lakh, PCR at 0.89 and VIX at 15.12.Cash market Volume were low as compared to Friday suggesting lack of participation of investors/traders ahead of the key economic event.
7. 5900 CE is having highest Open Interest of 42 Lakhs with addition of 4.4 lakhs in OI ,5800 CE added 4.6 lakhs in OI with net OI at 38 Lakhs. 5400-6000 CE added 18.7 lakhs in OI
8. 5600 PE is having highest Open Interest of 44 lakhs so 5600 is strong base for Nifty from start of November series. 5400 PE again added 7 lakhs in OI ,so 18 lakhs OI added in 2 days with average premium of Rs 16. FII were net buyers in Options worth 1172 cores and looking at data it suggests they ahve bought equal amount of Calls and Puts suggesting volatile session ahead .5400-6000 PE added 18 lakhs in OI
9. FII sold 76 cores and DII sold 9 cores in cash segment.
10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5677(For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5716 NF(For Positional Traders). (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand). Bank Nifty Trend Changer Level 11598
Buy above 5670 Tgt 5697,5712,5725
Sell below 5635 Tgt 5620,5600 and 5585 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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