FII Derivative Data Analysis for 22 August Trade in Nifty Future

Rally of Disbelief continues as Nifty hit 5400 after 5 months. Many traders are thinking with such rotten fundamentals CAG scam, Opposition demnading resignation of PM,Rupee near 55 etc.still nifty is scaling new highs, Well that’s the power of liquidity driven rally. Let me share an interesting fact Spanish markets which are center of European crisis, Its Stock market IBEX is up 30% from the lows it made in July 2012.

So says the Idiom never go against the trend as markets are irrational and same is getting proved now.

1. FII  bought 12968  Contracts of NF ,worth 264 cores  with net OI increasing by 12172 contracts.

2. As Nifty Future was up by 60  points and OI has increased by 12172 , FII have created fresh longs  into Index futures.

3. NS closed at 5421 highest level closing in past 5 months ,Bulls are going step by step closing above 5350 and than 5400. Now we need a weekly closing above 5400 to make sure this is not a whipsaw.

4.   Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5446 and 5467 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5400 and 5366 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5255 is not broken on closing basis.

5. Nifty August OI is at 2.63 cores with an addition  of 7.78 Lakh in OI, longs were added by Retailers and HNI and shorts were covered as 5400 NS was Sl for many traders .I expect small range tomorrow probably till 5447 on higher end and 5400 on lower end  with stock specific action looking at OI figure.

6. Total F&O turnover was 1.02 lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 2.0  lakh,This is point of concern on small down days we see a turnover of 1.20 lakhs  and down day turnover near 1 lakh cr. Also cash volume trades and turnover are less than 10% tommrow which means rally was only backed by short covering not based on delivery based buying.

7.  5300 CE also saw an unwinding  of 8  lakhs with total OI now standing at 32 lakhs,Call Writers ran for cover. 5400 CE saw an  unwinding  of 1.41  lakhs and total OI stands at 65 lakhs no major unwinding seen,  5500 CE still having  highest OI of 98 lakhs,with fresh addition of 5 lakhs in OI.

8. 5300 PE added 15 lakh in OI and having the OI at 1.06 cr which suggests traders are getting confident that 5300 will not break in August Expiry.5400 PE also added 25 Lakh in OI so now traders are eyeing 5400 PE as next base for Nifty. With such a huge addition i expect Nifty to once touch 5400 tomorrow.

9.FII  bought 141 cores and DII sold 141 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.71  Live INR rate @ http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/).

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5400, Trend Changer at 5304 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).

Buy above 5427 Tgt 5447,5467 and 5500

Sell below 5400 Tgt 5385,5366 and 5350 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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