FII Derivative Data Analysis for 14 August Trade in Nifty Future

The Grind down continue, another low volume day with nifty going up in dying hours of trade on low volumes. Today’s total contract traded in Nifty is second lowest in 2012. Looking at FII derivative trade its seems they have lost interest in trading NF. Today’s moves can be reversed tomorrow as Nifty has gone up with very less volumes.We have Inflation data coming tomorrow and also Holiday ahead on 15 August. So trading interest will remain less.

1. FII  sold 1049  Contracts of NF ,worth 27.69 cores  with net OI increasing by 22065 contracts.

2. As Nifty Future was up by 26 points and OI has increased by 22065 , FII have covered shorts and initiated fresh longs in Index futures. Volumes traded in NF warrants caution.

3. NS closed at 5348 after making a high of 5352 ,but nifty was unable to close above 5350 .As discussed earlier the range of 5350-80 is supply zone,cannot be broken in single attempt. Bulls are trying from past 5 days to close Nifty above 5350 but are failing each time suggesting weakness in price and eventual dip till 5260 can come.

4.   Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5350 and after that 5380  which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5307 ,Below 5260 gap filling will start till 5216 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5221 is not broken on closing basis.

5. Nifty August OI is at 2.52 cores with an addition  of 9.5  Lakh in OI, longs were added by Retailers and HNI.So mass pscology is turning towards rise till 5450 and traders are becoming confident over it looking at OI addition. Will Market oblige?

6. Total F&O turnover was 0.83 lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 1.6  lakh.

7.  5300 CE also saw an addition  of 0.28  lakhs with total OI now standing at 41 lakhs ,5400 CE saw an  unwinding of 5.9  lakhs and total OI stands at 69 lakhs making immediate ceiling for market,  5500 CE still having  highest OI of 85 lakhs,  , 4900-5500 CE saw an unwinding of 7 lakhs in OI suggesting weak bears have unwounded the position as Nifty is unable to close below 5300.

8. On Put side 5000 PE saw an unwinding  of 1 lakhs,immediate support of Nifty as total OI at 1.04 core.4900-5500 PE added total of 22 lakhs in OI.5200 PE added 5  lakh in OI suggesting market participants are not showing nifty closing below 5200 for coming week.5300 PE added 8.8 lakh in OI which suggests traders are getting confident that 5300 will not break in near term.

9.FII  bought 339 cores and DII sold 176  cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.45  Live INR rate @ has sold 441 cores  in stock futures.

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5342, Trend Changer at 5273 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).

Buy above 5355 Tgt 5380,5400 and 5428

Sell below 5336 Tgt 5310,5286 and 5260 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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