FII Derivative Data Analysis for 19 July trade in Nifty Future

By | July 18, 2012 7:26 pm
6 Comments

The unending list of super hit melodies which u have left will always make us remember u RIP The ultimate superstar Rajesh Khanna

Yesterday we has discussed going by History Nifty will not fill the gap from 5189-5150 and can give us the whipsaw move to trap shorts. As always Market move in a direction which gives maximum pain to traders and again History repeat.

NF bounced from 5177 which was just 4 point short of our Trend Deciding level 5181 and pullback to make the high of 5237. Bulls were winner EOD as they were able to close Nifty above 5200.

1. FII  sold 10409 Contracts of NF ,worth 272 cores with net OI decreasing by 5195 contracts.

2. As Nifty Future was up by 25 points and OI has decreased by 5195 contracts  means FII have covered  shorts near 5200-5180 NF. So today’s move proves that FII created longs in range of 5190-5200 as we discussed in previous analysis, Just observe today Intra chart how fast market reacted from the Trend Deciding level 5181.

3. NS made a low of 5169 consolidated basically making a distribution pattern and reacted sharply to upside, On Hourly charts Nifty broke out of Falling Wedge pattern which is bullish in nature, Targets comes to 5304 NS. The pattern to be valid NS should trade above 5200.

4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5231  which needs to be watched closely tomorrow,Support now exists at 5150 if 5169 gets taken out.Fibo retracement from 5169-5349 comes to 5237,5259 and 5280. Longs should use these levels to part book the holdings.

5. Nifty June OI is at 2.38 cores with an unwinding of 4.8 Lakh in OI, As Nifty was up by 25 points with reduction in OI  shorts were covered by retailers and HNI

6. Total F&O turnover was 1.14  lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 2.15 lakh. No major trading interest by market participants when we bounced back from lows of 5169

7.  5300 CE saw an unwinding  of 1 lakhs and total OI stands at 94 lakhs having highest OI, So 5300 is an immediate  upper ceiling.5200 CE writers ran for cover as it saw a liquidation of 5.3 lakhs contracts.

8. On Put side 5000 PE is having highest OI of 84 lakhs  with 2 lakhs liquidation  meaning 5000 is current base for market,Addition of 1 lakhs was seen in 5000-5300 PE .5200 is the immediate support for market based on Options data. Option Writers must be enjoying Writing of Options as Range bound moves make them eat the premium of OTM calls.

9.FII  bought 276 cores and DII sold 165  cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.49  Live INR rate @ http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/)

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5240, Trend Changer at 5286 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).

Buy above 5223 Tgt 5237,5259 and 5280

Sell below 5170 Tgt 5150,5130 and 5095 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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6 thoughts on “FII Derivative Data Analysis for 19 July trade in Nifty Future”

  1. Chandra Mohan Gupta

    Dear Bramesh,

    It appears that you have changed your calculating method of trend deciding level since 13th July as level has changed drastically on upper side in spite of nifty falling: Data are given below
    Date TDL NF closing of previous day
    12.7.12 5135 5322.9
    13.7.12 5225 5251.4
    16.7.12 5194 5240.45
    17.7.12 5207 5206.85
    18.7.12 5181 5198.65
    19.7.12 5240 5223.55

    Please clarify.

    Reply ↓
  2. Chetan Chauhan

    I like your analysis but fail to understand if technical analysis is so good why dont the traders who use technical analysis become billioners, moreover for every buyer there has to be a seller and vice versa, whatever may be the trend of the market.

    Reply ↓
  3. Aayush

    i thinnk u assumed buying today.. its sell. so ur 2nd point, shud be they squared off thr longs created yday

    Reply ↓
    1. Bramesh Post author

      I stick to my views longs were created today in NF, As net OI has reduced.Options analysis do have different views , i appreciate you sharing your views here.

      Rgds,
      Bramesh

      Reply ↓
    1. Bramesh Post author

      Dear Sir,

      After long time seeing your comment, Thanks for pointing out the mistake.

      Rgds,
      Bramesh

      Reply ↓

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