Today was the Highest % close by Nifty after Dec 11. Bulls came with a bang as soon as Nifty started trading above 4909 and conformation came above 4924. But was it a short covering rally or were fresh long intitated
1. FII bought just 8 Contracts of NF ,OI decreased by 4542. So we had an 132 points rally in NF and FII covered shorts in tune of 4542 contracts and no fresh buying Interesting days ahead !!
2. As Nifty Future was up by 132 points and OI has decreased by 4542 contracts means FII have used the rise to cover shorts, still no fresh buying seen.
3. Nifty made a high of 5010 today but unable to sustain above 5000 due to 5000 Call Writes. Price action indicated rally was backed by short covering but technical outlook has turned from Sell on Rise to Buy on Dips as we have comfortable closed above 4910.
4. Nifty has formed a DOJI pattern yesterday and today a Bullish engulfing pattern along with a close above 20 SMA which shows Bears have taked the backfoot and bulls are are having upperhand.
5. Nifty June OI is at 1.54 cores with an unwinding of 3.89 lakhs in OI,Shorts got covered today. Range as per Rollover data comes at 4825-5013, Now we till date have not closed below 4825 on closing basis tommrow will be the test of Bulls will they be able to close NF above 5013 and carry the momentum forward.
6. Total F&O turnover was 1.08 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 3.3 lakh. Turnover have been quiet low for first 3 days of series as discussed yesterday and today we saw a huge jump.
7. 5000 CE of June saw an unwinding of 1.3 lakhs , total OI now stands at 53 lakhs,Highest in June series. 5000 is the potential resistance as of now as still no major unwinding was seen.
8. On Put side 4800 PE is having highest OI of 73 lakhs making 4800 a strong base.With such a huge upmove base has shifted to 4800 with a fresh addition of 16 lakhs. So are these Confident Bulls or weak Bulls will come to know in next 2 days.As NF still closed in 19 points discount and 4800-5000 PE together added 37 lakhs in OI meaning FII have still not created fresh longs and hedging there shorts with put writing.
9.FII bought 269 cores and DII bought 489 cores in cash segment.FII were net buyer of 1400 cores in F&O segment also which affected INR which closed at 55.56( Line INR rate @ http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/)
10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 4868, Trend Changer at 4871 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
Buy above 5010 Tgt 5031,5065 and 5088
Sell below 4964 Tgt 4946,4919 and 4888 (Nifty Spot Levels)
On Global front ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged and no fresh stimulus from ECB has been announced.European Markets are rallying on back of news Germany and EU are planning a bailout for Spain as markets needed a reason for rally.
Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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