Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 30-Mar-12.
1. FII sold 19301 Contracts of NF worth 500 cores OI also decreasing by 24743 contracts.
2. As Nifty Futures was up by 101 points and OI has reduced by 24743 contracts means institutions have covered shorts in NF .As they have been carrying shorts for March Series.
3. Nifty on the last day of march closed above 20SMA@5292 which is bullish sign.Next important level comes to 5313 which is 50 SMA.
4.As discussed in Weekly analysis 5130 comes as channel bottom and Nifty obliged us making a low of 5135 and major bounceback of 168 points. Now look at a crooseover of 5313-5320 range above its a quick move of 40 points will happen and below it we will again go till 5268-5246 levels on NS.
5. Nifty April OI has decreased by 4.61 lakh .Total OI stands at 2.03 cores contracts. Short covering was seen in NF. Also note that OI in April series is lowest when compared to Feb 2.3 cores and March 2.53 cores. So it basically indicated Bulls have more power to add to longs and push OI till 2.3-2.5 cores.
6. Almost 1 core NF got rolloverd in range of 5221-5370 range and we are assuming mostly these are shorts so accept a good move on break of 5221 on downside and 5370 on upside.This is what i wrote on Thursday and on Friday as soon as NF broke 5221 it moved up by 113 points High being 5347,Now we need to look closely the price action around 5350-70 range. If unable to cross today we are in for a pullback.
7. FII OI for April Series is 364052 which is one of the lowest in recent months. SO the Big boys have to still build positions and this will act as further trigger to Nifty. We will watch it closely which side they want to turn the boat.
8.Total F&O turnover was 88K Cores with total contract traded at 405326.Now 88k cores for a rise of 101 points in NF raises a serious doubt on rise as it was backed by just short covering,we need to see turnover above 1 lakh cores for bulls to carry the rise.
9. Equity volumes have been reducing every time nifty reached the 5171 levels which suggests selling intensity is slowing and case for a bounce back can be made.– This was another reason for a pullback we saw.
10. In equity FII bought 962 cores and DII sold 167 cores. FII started to Buy after FM clarified on P-Notes and GAAR.
11. 5400 CE is having highest OI of 35 Lakhs with fresh addition of 3 lakhs. As of now looks at upper end of ceiling.
12. 5000 PE having highest OI of 54 lakhs but with fresh unwinding of 2.3 lakhs. 5000 looks like a Base but we need more OI addition by writes to confirm it as base of series.
13. FII Average traded price in futures comes at 5188 which basically means they did lot of day trading today also they have carried shorts for tomorrow. So if we do not cross 5347 NF in morning we are in for pullback till 5307.
14. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5307, Trend Changer at 5260 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upperhand).
Buy above 5308 Tgt 5333,5360 and 5385
Sell below 5267 Tgt 5241,5220 and 5203
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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