Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 24-Jan-11.
1. FII bought 6911 Contracts in NF worth 184.64 Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing by 33701 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 70 points and OI has increased today, with rise in price so FII have created fresh longs in Index futures.RBI played a crucial role in yesterday breakout above 5068. Nifty moved above 5068 which was a breakout trade,and closed above 5100.We gave indication 3 days before when we saw Liquidation of 5100 CE which signify BUll power have even strengthen and today we are above 5100. Hope traders are not short in market.
4. NF total Jan OI was at 1.29 cores with 29 Lakh liquidation in OI,this whole OI+ some fresh addition in total of 37 lakhs got rollovered to Feb series.
3. Rollovers provide good visibility of Next series Now look at Feb series rollover of NF. Today Feb Series OI is 1.9 Cores. On 17 Jan it was 48 Lakhs so in 3 trading session an addition of 1.5 Cores.
Now lets do some data analysis
On 17 Jan Nifty closed at 4964 and yesterday NF closes at 5120 so a 1.5 Cores addition is range of 5106 to 4964.
So a close below 4964 will lead to major weakness in Nifty for Feb series. Keep a note of this level
5. FII total OI is Index Futures is 7380001 which is highest from past 3 months and Nifty is rising daily. So do not fight with the trend.
6. In Equity cash segment FII bought 801 cores whereas DII sold 262 cores.FII have been buying heavily and we can see the effect on rupee it has come to sub 50 levels.
7. As per Options data 5100 CE has OI of 66 lakhs with addition of 3.67 lakh and we have closes above 5100 levels. Now Bulls have to give Nifty push above 5141 to have a bullish expiry. What the logic
Low of Series:4592
High of Series:5149
Range = 557
Average Traded Price of Series:4859
Looking at above data Bulls are comfortably placed and they need to push nifty above 5175 to get all the SL triggered and panic short covering can come. So keep an eye on 5185 level above which we will touch the 5220 which is 200 SMA of Nifty
Nifty Expiry range comes between 5185(Upper End) and 5070(Lower End)
8. PCR has increase to 1.27 PCR above 1.3 leads to trending moves so still more to go from PCR side.
9. FII SAR level comes at 5119 and Nifty ATP for Dec series comes at 4860.
Buy above 5142 Tgt 5168,5175 and 5220
Sell below 5106 Tgt 5068,5058,5020
All levels mentioned are SPOT levels.
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
Follow on Facebook during Market Hours: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Brameshs-Tech/140117182685863