How exit polls have fared in past Lok Sabha elections

By | May 20, 2019

An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. Unlike an opinion poll, which asks for whom the voter plans to vote, or some similar formulation, an exit poll asks for whom the voter actually voted.

Exit polls predict another huge win for our Beloved PM Shri Narendra Modiji, forecast are varying from  277-352 for NDA which is above the Majority mark of 272

Have Exit Polls been Right in Past for Lok Sabh Election

Below is the Snapshot of all Exit Polls Conducted and most of them failed to give the number as per prediction. With advent of technology and increasing the sample size we can see an improvement, Which we will come to Know on 23 May.

Barring exit polls of 1998, when some of them were quite close to the actual results, the pollsters went completely wrong in mapping the electorate mood since 1996.

So Lets wait for 23 May

In 1996, the government-controlled Doordarshan engaged Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) to conduct exit polls. It accurately predicted a fractured-mandate — the BJP fell short of the majority, but emerged as the single largest party.

In 1998, the top four election surveys –India Today- CSDS, DRS, Outlook-AC Nielsen and Frontline- CMS predicted the NDA would get between 214 and 249– less than than the halfway mark of 272.

In 2004, Outlook-MDRA and Star-C-Voter had predicted incumbent Atal Bihari Vajpayee government returning to power again by giving the 290 seats and 275 seats for the NDA, respectively.

In 2009, the pollsters’ yet failed again, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) won 262 seats, a figure no pollster could even come close.

So Lets wait for 23 May to get the Final Picture, Just 2 more days 🙂

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