Indian Union Budget will be presented on 01 Feb 2017 , and as discussed in previous post Nifty remains in a wide range so there is an opportunity to trade in Nifty Options And the opportunity could turn out to be quite promising.
Which will be market direction post budget we do not know so its best we take a position that is completely independent of the direction of the market and possibly make money out of it.
Though we dont have an idea of the direction, historically, the maximum change in Nifty from the budget date to the next expiry date is quite decent in either direction. So, we can fairly assume that the move post budget is going to be big as it always is. So lets discuss the Option Strategy
Long Straddle strategy
A long straddle strategy is when you buy a Put Option and a Call Option of the same expiry and at the same strike. As most of retail investor will prefer trading the Option Route to trade ( They should not trade but still they cannot resist the temptation of not trading 😉 ).Yeah, offcourse, there could be a loss. There is nothing called ‘100% probability of profit’ in stock market. But, definitely we can identify strategies with bear minimum losses and with a good potential of profit.
The above depicts the Volatility and Range Expansion Nifty has witnessed in past 20 Budget session and Bank Nifty is past 10 Budget Session.Just by going at the sheer number its looks mind boggling. So Stop Losses are must for traders on Budget day. Traders who are weak heart having small capital till 5 lakhs and cannot digest the bout of volatility you are going to witness just stay away from market for Budget day. I know its difficult to control your emotions not to trade on such volatile day but if your caught on wrong side of trade you can lose big chunk of your capital in matter of minutes.
So Following Option Strategy can be used to play the Budget day:
A long straddle is the best of both worlds, since the Call Options gives you profit if Nifty goes up and the Put Options gives you Profit if Nifty goes down at a particular strike price . But those rights don’t come cheap, because as the Budget day come nearer Implied Volatility of Nifty Options will rise which in turn will increase the price of Options.
As soon as the event is over the IV will come down drastically and there will be huge fall in Option Premium.
The goal is to profit if the stock moves in either direction. Typically, a straddle will be constructed with the call and put at-the-money ie. Suppose Nifty is trading at 8600 so trader will eye on 9100 Call and 9100 Put . Buying both a call and a put increases the cost of your position, especially for a volatile stock. So you’ll need a fairly significant price swing just to break even.
By having long positions in both call and put options, straddles can achieve large profits no matter which way the underlying stock price heads, provided the move is strong enough.
- Price of Underlying – Strike Price of Long Call – Net Premium Paid
- Strike Price of Long Put – Price of Underlying – Net Premium Paid
- Max Loss = Net Premium Paid + Commissions Paid
- Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying = Strike Price of Long Call/Put
- Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Long Call + Net Premium Paid
- Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Long Put – Net Premium Paid
Lets discuss with an Example
Suppose Nifty is trading at 8700 . An options trader enters a long straddle by buying a Feb 8700 PE for Rs 160 and a Feb 8700 CE for Rs 120. The net debit for the trader is 280+ Commissions (120 +160 ), This is the maximum loss for the trader per lot. The position will be profitable if Nifty changes by more than 4% at expiry date.
- Nifty is trading at 8300 on expiration in Feb, the Feb 8700 Call will expire worthless but the Feb 8700 Put expires in the money and has an intrinsic value of Rs 400 . Subtracting the initial debit of 280, the long straddle trader’s profit comes to Rs 120.
- Nifty is trading at 9000 on expiration in Feb, the Feb 8700 Call will expire in the money and has an intrinsic value of Rs 300 but the Feb 8700 Put expire worthless . Subtracting the initial debit of 280, the long straddle trader’s profit comes to Rs 20.
- On expiration in Feb if Nifty is still trading at 8700, both the Feb 8700 put and the Feb 8700 call expire worthless and the long straddle trader suffers a maximum loss which is equal to the initial debit of Rs 280 taken to enter the trade.
For a traders their is no Thumb rule that he need to keep position till Expiry even before expiry if trader is seeing profit in the position can exit the trade.
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