Nifty May 2015 Series F&O Expiry Analysis

• FII’s sold 7.1 K contract of Index Future worth 96 cores,29.6 K Long contract were added by FII’s and 36.7 K  short contracts  were added by FII’s. Net Open Interest increased  by 66.4 K contract. Things You Should do Before Trading for A Living

• Nifty reacted from the zone of support as shown in below chart, took support near  20 SMA, AS today is expiry day any break of 8277  we can see deeper cut in market.Move above 8342 can see nifty moving towards 8383/8400 odd levels. Below 8320 Fibo Retracement are at  8262/8197 levels.

 

 

 

 

• Nifty May Future Open Interest Volume is at 0.86 core with liquidation of 21.4 lakh, 36 lakh added in June Series,  rollovers stands at just 53% at price of 8344. Nifty future roll cost traded at ~55-56 points (adjusted for dividend of 35 points expected in June) for most part of the day. 144 K contracts were rolled; 85 K contracts were unwound in the near month. With NF trading in discount, a good proportion of open interest in Nifty futures is positioned towards reverse arbitrage positions (buy Nifty futures and sell constituents in cash).  FII’s would prefer to  roll over the long Nifty futures at lower level Hence they would prefer to roll at relatively low levels from the current one. 

• Total Future & Option trading volume was   at 3.93 core with total contract traded at 4.6 lakh. PCR @0.98

• 8500  CE  OI at 54  lakh , wall of resistance @ 8500 .8100/8400 CE liquidated 38  lakh  ,so bears liquidated open position near expiry  and  still holding 27  lakh open position. FII sold 22.3 K  CE longs and 14.3 K CE shorted  were covered by them.

• 8300 PE OI@ 52 lakhs so strong base @ 8300.  8300/8600 PE liquidated 6.9 lakh so bulls  liquidated 59 lakh position in 3 trading session but managed to hold 8300.  FII sold 19.1 K PE longs and 18.2 K PE  were shorted  by them.

• FII’s sold 934  cores  in Equity and DII’s bought 594  cores in cash segment.INR closed at 63.98

• Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 8314 (For Intraday Traders). NF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 8295and BNF Trend Deciding Level 18409 (For Intraday Traders) BNF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 18221 How to trade Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures as per Trend Changer Level .
  

 

Buy above 8342 Tgt 8358,8383 and 8423 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 8315 Tgt 8294,8255 and 8230 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Expiry Upper Range:8410

Expiry Lower Range:8259

 

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