Nifty closes below 50 SMA,FII FnO Data Analysis

By | March 14, 2015

FII

  • FII’s sold 8.3 K contract of Index Future worth 5 cores,1.6 K Long contract were squared off  by FII’s and 6.6K  short contracts  were added  by FII’s. Net Open Interest increased  by 4.9 K contract.
  • As discussed in yesterday analysis, we thought Nifty has formed short term bottom and was ready to move up, Nifty opened gap up around 8849 and started moving down and closed well below 50 SMA, So Friday The 13 played its Role and rewarding Bears handsomely. Range of the day was 222 points. This is what we discussed today  As per gann box close above 2X1 line@8800 will add bullishness.  8820 should be watched closely tomorrow once crossed will add to bullish momentum as we have weekly closing.   As discussed yesterday Time Analysis shows big move round the corner we got 1 today expect another up move tomorrow. Many traders asked me “You said short term bottom formed” but market went down and which way the “big move” will come. One thing which all traders needs to understand market are dynamic in nature and we need to change view as market are changing, its a school of hard knock so never be biased towards your trades. To come above the Bias and control our emotions we developed the” Trading System” . We disucss 2 levels in the post for  Positional traders as TC and for Intraday Trades levels mentioned in Blue and red. NF opened at 8874 and TC levels was 8881 indicating a short from the opening rate and Intraday traders got a clear trade below 8765 NS levels. So direction of Big move we got hint from TC levels was on downside and that with proper risk management we need to book and trail our positions. So trust the levels and believe them without bias. It will improve your trading.

nifty hourly

NIFTY - Gann Box

 

  • Nifty March Future Open Interest Volume is at 2.46 core with liquidation of 3.18 lakhs with increase in cost of carry.
  • Total Future & Option trading volume was   at 3.16 core with total contract traded at 6.7,lakh. PCR @0.87 approaching the oversold zone.
  • 9000  CE  OI at 54.5 lakh but saw liquidation of 0.46 lakh,wall of resistance @ 9000 .8700/8900 CE added 32.6 lakhs,so  bears are back with bang now holding 66 lakhs so bears won the battle from bulls time being. FII bought 29.9 K CE longs and 9.2 K  CE were shorted by them.
  • 8500 PE OI@ 47.4  lakhs so strong base @ 8500. 8700/8900 PE  saw addition of 16.7 lakhs in addition so bulls liquidated all the position formed yesterday. FII added 61.3 K PE longs and 12.2 K PE were shorted  by them.
  • FII’s bought 67 cores  in Equity and DII sold 71 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 62.97.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 8732 (For Intraday Traders). NF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 8868 and BNF Trend Deciding Level 19065  (For Intraday Traders) BNF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 19461 .How to trade Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures as per Trend Changer Level .  NF made high of 8874 near TC level of 8881 and BNF made exact high of 19500 and collapsed.Hope traders made good money

 

Buy above 8668 Tgt 8680,8709 and 8740 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 8631 Tgt 8600,8570 and 8555 (Nifty Spot Levels)

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10 thoughts on “Nifty closes below 50 SMA,FII FnO Data Analysis

  1. Bramesh Post author

    During 2003-2008 Bull Market Nifty gave 13.2% correction in 2004 and 30% correction is 2006.. Those who bought in those correction were rewarded handsomely.

    I see people panicking with just a 3% correction if we get a 15-20% correction i wonder what will happen ?

    Trading and Investing is for the people who have nerves of steel and have conviction in there analysis.

    Have conviction and trade/invest with proper risk management and stop thinking about “What if x level comes” . No one know what will happen but if you have a plan you should know when to act and when to sit out.

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  2. Rajan

    sir, request you give a medium term on backdrop of these points

    many nifty stocks have turned bearish
    200 dma is far down at 8100
    nifty has broken first time higher bottom of 8669 since last nine months.
    World CCI (crude ,currency, interest rate) effect .
    Complacency and long build up.
    nifty should form botom between 8470 and 8585 but what if it break can it go down below 8000

  3. Rajiv Jamwal

    Best is to never jump in the market with any preconceived notion about the direction.Just ride the trend.Never try to predict it.One shud be ready for both the directions quickly.I know it is easy to say but very tough to command.I am still coping up with my this weakness. Hope at the end I should be able to swim with the ride

  4. Aditya

    Dear Bramesh Ji,
    The data published by NSE on 13th Friday I feel is wrong. How can FII’s net long 5 crores futures for the day if they squared off 1.6k long contracts and shorted 6.2k future contracts? the figure should short 208 crore futures approx.

    Regards,
    Aditya

  5. reenabhatia

    Thanx sir….i got the answer…i m holding nifty long@8800 do u see nifty crossing the level in coming 3-4 days

  6. Natvision

    Bramesh, Agree about markets being dynamic. The levels you give on your site is a very good guidance for traders to keep in mind – but very important to trade as per dynamics. Keeping your view in mind first and dynamics second is dangerous. Keeping dynamics in mind first and your view secondly to support our decisions is definitely a good trading strategy.

  7. Bramesh Post author

    Bull resides above 200 DMA and Bear below 200 DMA. Till 200 DMA is not broken Bull run is intact.

    These are bought of correction which will come and go and are very healthy for market for longer run.

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  8. Namita Kant

    Bramesh Sir, Nifty has closed well below its 50 SMA, so does it mean that Nifty has formed a top of 8919 and now it is on its way to downside and the current bull-run has come to an an end. If i remember correctly, Nifty has been on a upswing since 2012 from 4700 odd levels, are we by any chance towards the end of this bull run???

  9. H BASAVARAJ

    Last month too i made this observation Feb 13th Friday thank god nothing much happened
    but this 13th friday will be remembered for its omen

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