Nifty near trendline support, Will it hold tommrow ?

By | September 23, 2014

FII_1

  • FII’s sold 7.9 K contract of Index Future worth 315 cores, 17.5 K Long contract were added and 25.4 K short contracts  were added by FII’s. Net Open Interest increased  by 42.9  K contract , so FII added longs in Index futures also shorts were added almost  in 1:1.5 ratio.
  • This is what we discussed yesterday Bounce seen today was because of Rollover pressure, Nifty again got resisted near the Price Channel as shown in below chart also formed a double top in daily chart, which need confirmation in next 2 days with price not going above 8160 and breaking 8064.Break below 8064 can see a quick down move towards 8015. Gann Turn date today so be cautious in trading expect volatile moves today. Move was totally scripted as we discussed now we are nearing trendline support, we can see intraday break of trendline till 7963/7930 but might close above this. EWchart is shown below with bearish possiblity, break of 7900 will confirm the count.

nifty daily

Drive WealthNifty Hourly EW

  • Nifty Future Sep Open Interest Volume is at 1 cores with liquidation of 9.7  lakh which completely got rollovered to October series.
  • Total Future & Option trading volume was   at 4  lakh core with total contract traded at 3 lakh. PCR @1.02.With todays fall the PCR has not reduced showing confidence of Bulls in holding 8000 levels, Will market oblige ?
  • 8200  CE  OI at 82.5  lakh  suggesting wall of resistance , 8100 CE  added 16.4 lakh suggesting expiry should be around 8100, 8000 CE also added 4.8 lakh so 8000 can break tommrow on intraday basis. FII’s bought 10.9 K CE longs and 9.5 K CE  were shorted  by  them.
  • 8000 PE OI@ 67.3  lakhs so  base @ 8000 is getting jittery . 8100 PE OI@28 lakh  so 8100 will not be crossed till expiry now looking at liquidation of 32 lakhs, FII’s bought 43.9  K contract  PE longs and 9 K PE contract were shorted  by  them.
  • FII’s sold 1186  cores in Equity and DII bought 325 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 60.94.

 

Buy above 8037 Tgt 8055,8074 and 8100 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 8000 Tgt 7965, 7930 and 7910 (Nifty Spot Levels)

 

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14 thoughts on “Nifty near trendline support, Will it hold tommrow ?

  1. Umesh

    Thats right

    In this case you will get a profit of 3000 per lot.

    And you can buy back any time, after the (very next) moment you made a sell, till before expiry.

  2. Bala

    Hi Ramesh Can you share your course details,fee,duration and where is the location.

  3. Vijay

    Great Nifty View Today on 24th …. Barmesh Just saw Nifty bouncing up from 7950 What a perfect Count. Sir Will this bounce will stop @ 38% or 50% … (Wave-4)

  4. vineet2

    Sir,

    By mistake , I framed the question wrongly….
    Its like :

    I sell a lot of 8100 put @ 100 and it reaches 40.
    Can I buy it back anytime before expiry ?
    What is my profit now ?

    Profit = 50 * 60 =3000/- ?

    Rgds,
    Vineet

  5. Bramesh Post author

    Dear Vineet,

    In the above case you are in loss of 50*(100-120)= 1000.

    You can buy anytime and do close trade before expiry else there is heave penalty levied by NSE.

    Hope it helps !!

  6. Bramesh Post author

    Sony, its based on time analysis we are fine tuning it.

  7. Umesh

    You will not be in profit but a loss of 1000 plus brokerage and other expanses per lot

    120-100 = 20 x 50 = 1000

  8. akhil

    Sir, How have you calculated longs and shorts “FII’s sold 7.9 K contract of Index Future worth 315 cores, 17.5 K Long contract were added and 25.4 K short contracts were added by FII’s. Net Open Interest increased by 42.9 K contract “

  9. Vineet

    Dear Sir,

    Hope you r fine.

    Thanks for ur daily analysis. It is really helpful for amateurs like me to understand the complex markets.

    I had a doubt regarding options selling.
    E.g If I have sold one lot of 8100 Put @ 100.
    Now when it reaches say 120 , can I buy it back before months expiry ?
    If i can what will be my profit ?

    Thanks in advance,
    Vineet

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