Nifty near inflexion point, Will 50 SMA hold ?

By | August 6, 2014

FII_1

  • FII’s sold 8476 contract of Index Future worth 323 cores, 8.6  K Long contract were added  and 17.1 K short contracts were added by FII’s. Net Open Interest increased  by 25840  contract.FII’s added shorts aggressively in Index Futures today.
  • Nifty closed near its 20 DMA, and break of 7668 and sustained below this will give indication of gap filling from 7622-7601. Nifty has been frustrating the traders from past 3 trading sessions as going up and down alternate day, triggering SL of Trend followers. Traders need to understand, market cannot move in straight line and will trade in a range like currently  7638-7752 and than give the anticipated big move. SO “When Not To Trade”  is an important trait traders need to develop. One Big move will wipe of all the losses.  Nifty has been following the EW pattern as discussed rising to 7752 and now fall till 7641, ANy close below 7641 will start the bigger fall towards 7575 where hourly channel support as shown in below chart.

Nifty Hourly EW

 

nifty hourly

  • Nifty Future Aug Open Interest Volume is at 1.37 cores with addition of 6 lakh suggesting long liquidation and short addition with increase in CoC.
  • Total Future & Option trading volume was   at 1.69  lakh core with total contract traded at 2.5 lakh. PCR @1.01 suggesting more Calls are getting shorted.
  • 8000  CE  OI at 57.6  lakh  suggesting wall of resistance , 7800 CE saw 6.3 lakh with 19 lakh in past 3 days suggesting bears are getting stronger @ 7800.FII’s bought 7.1  K CE longs and 4.3 K  CE were  shorted  by   them.
  • 7300 PE OI@ 59.4 lakhs suggest bulls making base @7300 , 7500 PE has negligible addition in OI,  and 7600 PE also added negligible OI  , these 2 strike prices needs to be seen tomorrow  any sign of unwinding will suggest we will break 50 DMA tomorrow.FII’s bought 18.1  PE longs and 3.3 K  PE PE were shorted  by them.
  • FIIs bought 283 cores in Equity and DII bought 32 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 61.5.

 

Buy above 7691 Tgt 7722,7740 and 7772 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 7658 Tgt 7640, 7602 and 7558 (Nifty Spot Levels)

 

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6 thoughts on “Nifty near inflexion point, Will 50 SMA hold ?

  1. Bramesh Post author

    Thanks a lot !!

    Will work on it

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  2. Vishal Kale

    Hello Bhai,

    We cant thank you enough for the posts that you put up so religiously….

    I have one request, if you find time can you post an article about Market Pre Open

    I tried online resources but could not gather much

    Regards
    Vishal

  3. shailesh

    What is difference between trend deciding level and trend chaning level……In NF you have mention trend changing level(positinal ) 7718 …..so up trend will again start from here right …what about deciding level forr intraday could not understand

  4. shailesh

    Superb analysis and levels sir…will soon join your classes.

  5. ekr

    sir please provide view for long position in kotak bank

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