Nifty bounce after RBI event, Is the rally sustainable ?

By | August 6, 2014

FII_1

 

  • FII’s sold 5272   contract of Index Future worth 201 cores, 2.2 K Long contract were squared off and 3 K short contracts were added by FII’s. Net Open Interest increased  by 856 contract.SO today we have 3 moves after RBI event, First Rise than fall than again rise. SO today moves were based on just short covering as Nifty premium moved from 15 points to 40 points.
  • Nifty made a low of 7638 and the rise started around 7674, so these 2 figures are very important for next 3 days, any break below 7705 can see swift down move till 7674 and finally 7638 will also get broken. As again volumes on rise was very less so caution should be used on longs. If the Below Count turns out to be right we can see downmove again till 7641 in coming 3 days.

Nifty Hourly EW

 

  • Nifty Future Aug Open Interest Volume is at 1.31 cores with addition of 3.7  lakh suggesting long addition .
  • Total Future & Option trading volume was   at 2.20  lakh core with total contract traded at 3.4 lakh. PCR @0.87, Today’s rise in last 30 mins was not backed by volumes suggesting today’s rise can be retraced completely tomorrow.
  • 8000  CE  OI at 53.2  lakh  suggesting wall of resistance , 7800 CE saw 3.8 lakh with 13 lakh in past 2 days suggesting bears has not unwounded the position so we can see another round of selling  ,FII’s bought 23  K CE longs and 8.9 K  CE were  shorted  by   them.
  • 7300 PE OI@ 59.1 lakhs suggest bulls making base @7300 , 7500 PE added 11.3 and 7600 PE added 12.7 lakh , these 2 strike prices needs to be seen tomorrow after RBI policy any sign of unwinding will suggest we will break 50 DMA tomorrow.FII’s bought 217 PE longs and  2.6 K  PE shorted  PE were covered  by them.
  • FIIs bought 52 cores in Equity and DII bought 62   cores in cash segment.INR closed at 60.84. SO cash and Futures data shows rise was not backed by FII’s so caution advised on long.

 

Buy above 7752 Tgt 7786,7820 and 7840 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 7712 Tgt 7672, 7640 and 7602 (Nifty Spot Levels)

 

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9 thoughts on “Nifty bounce after RBI event, Is the rally sustainable ?

  1. Bramesh Post author

    Updated in my weekly analysis

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  2. Bramesh Post author

    Hold with SL of 754 on closing basis.

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  3. Bramesh Post author

    Its Updated in latest post.

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  4. mallikarjuna

    Sir what is your views on nifty for tomorrow?

  5. harsh saraswat

    What should one do if has a short position on Bharat Forge at 739

  6. karan sharma

    how many points stop loss do i need to maintain sir. of r a buy or sell

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