Nifty Option Trading Strategy for Union Budget 2014

By | July 9, 2014

With the Indian Union Budget to be presented on 10 July , and as discussed in previous post Nifty remains in a wide range so there is  an opportunity to trade in Nifty Options  And the opportunity could turn out to be quite promising.

Which will be market direction post budget we do not know so its  best we take a position that is completely independent of the direction of the market and possibly make money out of it.

Though we dont have an idea of the direction, historically, the maximum change in Nifty from the budget date to the next expiry date is quite decent in either direction. So, we can fairly assume that the move post budget is going to be big as it always is. So lets discuss the Option Strategy

Long Straddle strategy

A long straddle strategy is when you buy a Put Option and a Call Option of the same expiry and at the same strike. As most of retail investor will prefer trading the Option Route to trade ( They should not trade but still they cannot resist the temptation of not trading 😉 ).Yeah, offcourse, there could be a loss. There is nothing called ‘100% probability of profit’ in stock market. But, definitely we can identify strategies with bear minimum losses and with a good potential of profit.

Budget Range

 

The above depicts the Voaltality and Range Expansion Nifty has witnessed in past 17 Budget session.Just by going at the sheer number its looks mind boggling. So Stop Losses are must for traders on Budget day. Traders who are weak heart and cannot digest the bout of volatility you are going to witness just stay away from market.

So Following Option  Strategy can be used to play the Budget day:

A long straddle is the best of both worlds, since the Call Options gives you profit if Nifty goes up  and the Put Options  gives you Profit if Nifty goes down  at a particular strike price . But those rights don’t come cheap, because as the Budget day come nearer Implied Volatility of Nifty Options will rise which in turn will increase the price of Options. As soon as the event is over the IV will come down drastically and there will be huge fall in Option Premium.

The goal is to profit if the stock moves in either direction. Typically, a straddle will be constructed with the call and put at-the-money ie. Suppose Nifty is trading at 7600 so trader will eye on 7700 Call and 7700 Put . Buying both a call and a put increases the cost of your position, especially for a volatile stock. So you’ll need a fairly significant price swing just to break even.

 

Long straddle options are unlimited profit, limited risk (Risk of Losing the whole capital)  options trading strategies that are used when the options trader thinks that the underlying securities will experience significant volatility in the near term.

By having long positions in both call and put options, straddles can achieve large profits no matter which way the underlying stock price heads, provided the move is strong enough.

Profit Calculation:

  • Price of Underlying – Strike Price of Long Call – Net Premium Paid
  • Strike Price of Long Put – Price of Underlying – Net Premium Paid

Loss Calculation:

  • Max Loss = Net Premium Paid + Commissions Paid
  • Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying = Strike Price of Long Call/Put

Breakeven Points

  • Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Long Call + Net Premium Paid
  • Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Long Put – Net Premium Paid

Lets discuss with an Example

Suppose Nifty  is trading at 7640 . An options trader enters a long straddle by buying a July  7700 PE  for Rs 120 and a July 7700 CE for Rs 160. The net debit for the trader is 280+ Commissions (120 +160 ), This is the maximum loss for the trader per lot. The position will be profitable if Nifty changes by more than 4% at expiry date.

Nifty is trading at 7300 on expiration in July , the July 7600 Call will expire worthless but the Julu 7600 Put  expires in the money and has an intrinsic value of Rs 400 . Subtracting the initial debit of  280, the long straddle trader’s profit comes to Rs 120.

On expiration in July if Nifty is still trading at 7700, both the July 7000 put and the July 77 000call expire worthless and the long straddle trader suffers a maximum loss which is equal to the initial debit of Rs 280 taken to enter the trade.

Trade with  only 1-2% of your trading capital with this strategy, Protection of Capital is most important for Trader.

 

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One thought on “Nifty Option Trading Strategy for Union Budget 2014

  1. ramu

    sir,
    pls share ur strategies so that who want to take advantage of ur knowledge ans sharing sir .thanks in advance .

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