How to trade Nifty on Union Budget 2014

By | July 10, 2014

FII_1

  • FII’s sold 17.4 K contract of Index Future worth 662 cores, 11.5 K Long contract were squared off and 5.8 K short contracts were added  by FII’s. Net Open Interest came down by 5.7 K contract suggesting FII are again going short at higher level.
  • Nifty continued with its correction and took support at 7551 as we discussed yesterday as per abc pattern , Now Nifty has corrected 258 points from highs,Today we have discussed 2 Elliot Wave target Bullish and bearish, Bullish target comes @ 7843 and bearish one @ 7394 as discussed in below chart.Nifty will be highly volatile today and big move can be expected as per time analysis between 1-2:30 PM so trade cautiously during this time.

Nifty Hourly EW

As seen in below chart the downward falling trendline can also offer good support near 7510 odd levels. If not broken we can see rise again towards 7800 odd levels.If broken 7394 is on cards.

nifty hourly

  • Nifty Future July Open Interest Volume is at 1.36 cores with liquidation of of 0.99  lakhs in Open Interest,  suggesting long liquidation. An important point to not is 1 core of Index Futures got rollovered in range of 7616-7500 and Nifty is trading well above this zone, this price zone implies a very significant price band.Yesterday we bounced from 7567, Today need to see if 7500 Holds or not.
  • Total Future & Option trading volume at 2.10 lakh core with total contract traded at 3.2 lakh. PCR @0.81. PCR has increased from 0.77  to 0.81.
  • 8000 CE  OI at 87.7 lakh saw addition of 2.2 lakh suggesting call writing , 7800 and 7700 CE saw addition of 13.4 lakh suggesting bears have made wall of resistance around these levels, If market rises to 7700 and no call liquidation it will mean bull trap and will start falling after 1 PM so keep close eye on 7700/7800 CE OI to get further indication. FII’s sold 21.4 K CE longs and 13.5K  CE were shorted by them.As said yesterday FII’s have been consistently writing calls suggesting higher levels if they come will not be sustained and today they booked out in calls suggesting they are entering market with bearish bias.
  • 7500 PE OI at 47.4  lakh saw liquidation of 3.5  lakh so support of 7500 looks dicey , 7600 PE also added 3.7 lakhs  suggesting informed buying happening in 7600 PE , 7300/7200 PE added 6.1 lakh suggesting informed buying happening at this strike. FII’s bought 8.4  K PE longs and pnly 996  PE were squared off.
  • FIIs bought 645 cores in Equity and DII sold 265 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 59.75.

 

Buy above 7596 Tgt 7639,7694 and 7737 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 7541 Tgt 7497, 7442 and 7394 (Nifty Spot Levels)

 

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