Nifty consolidates, How to trade 1 day before election results

By | May 14, 2014

FII_1

  • FII’s sold 2878  contract of Index Futures worth 101 cores (9.1 K  longs were added and 11.9 K shorts were added in Index Future) with net OI increasing by 21 K contracts.
  • Nifty continued its run and very comfortably closed above 7100 and again created History by closing at 7108.75 same as yesterday close 7108.75. This has happened only 5 times and last time happened on 2004. Today was a perfect day of consolidation after 3 days of run up,Tomorrow will be a crucial day as its 1 day before election and expect volatile move and last 30 min can see a rise in market.

I just want to share study which shows market move in May month during election

  • May 14 Till today +6.2%
  • May 09 +28.1%
  • May 04 -17.4%
  • May 1999 +15.8%

Still there is lot of room for upside/downside in next 10 trading sessions.  As per update Elliot wave chart 7229 and 7412 are the near term target of Nifty. So do not try to pick the top and bottom of market just follow the system and be at peace with yourself.

NIfty Daily EW

  • Nifty Future May Open Interest Volume is at 1.70 cores with addition of of 10.3 lakhs in Open Interest, suggesting long addition.
  • Total Future & Option trading volume at 1.23  lakh core with total contract traded at 2.1 lakh.
  • 7200 Nifty CE  is having highest OI at 52  lakhs followed by 7000 CE, so 7200 can offer some resistance of market tomorrow  ,7500 CE is also having an OI of 52.3 lakhs and it seems smart money is selling 7500 CE. FII’s sold 4.7  K CE longs and 38.9 K CE  were shorted by them such a huge addition in call short indicates next week after election results are out of way VIX will collapse leading to big sell off in options premium.
  • 6400 PE   is having highest OI at  51  lakh  remains a strong support for the series. 6900-7000 PE saw a good addition are upcoming support of the market. FII’s bought 9.7 K PE longs and 36.6 K were shorted by them.

OI

  • FIIs bought 1520 cores in Equity and DII sold 410 cores in cash segment.INR closed above 59.64.

Buy above 7116 Tgt 7148,7172 and 7213(Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 7100 Tgt 7067, 7043 and 7014 (Nifty Spot Levels)

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