Will The Hope Rally Fade Away?

By | March 22, 2014

For just about 2 months the Indian bourses have shrugged off all the things that are worrying the rest of the world. Institutional money is coming in, and today the Government raised about USD 1 Bn through the sale of a 9 per cent stake in Axis Bank. The currency has strengthened somewhat, inflation is down and so are commodities including Oil. All of these factors put together have brought about a surge in Equities and brought a general cheer to the investing class. To this intoxicating brew have been added the concoction called NDA-widely tipped to come first at the hustings in May 2014.

Here is where the trouble starts. Polls apart there are evident signs that the NDA is as much a force of convenience as are the other political alliances in the country. There is the unique spectre of a 86 year old politician being cajoled by party men atleast twice in the past 3-4 months, The first occasion was when the NDA’s PM candidate was notified and the latest has been the selection of ticket for this once Deputy PM.
It is apparent groupism exists in the NDA, with some thinkers in the capital expressing dismay and a suggestion that the anti-PM nominee group will sabotage Elections to the detriment of NDA. So much so that instead of a far-away target of 272 seats, the front-runners end with 160. This scenario will lead to a return of the UPA III from the back door. All expectations of a decisive government in place by mid-summers will then vanish. What we will get is, what we have had for the past 10 years.
This scenario apart, were the NDA to come as a force they will still find the Government tough to run and difficult o achieve explicit aims. A March 19 report by Credit Suisse claims that most infra projects power, water, rail roads and so on are stuck at the State level. The thing is most of these projects were set up under unviable conditions. The bankrupt Southern States have chosen not to let these thermal and hydel plants run for the poor in their States will not be able to the bills. This will lead to even larger subsidies to Electricity and Water Boards and putting State finances deeper into the RED. Better let the debts of corporates and banks remain a central problem even if it means the population suffers at large.
The current optimism is inexplainable and will come to nought soon. There are voices that the Bull operators of Bombay will Exit equities before April 7. This will create a vaccum in the financial markets. At that juncture if the FIIs save Bombay then it is good, otherwise the Hope Rally will see a END.

7 thoughts on “Will The Hope Rally Fade Away?

  1. Bramesh Post author

    Corruption will remain an integral part of Humans, Till “GREED” is der corruption will exists in this world. Now as a voter our choice is to vote for government which is less corrupt and have focus of building our nation with a decisive leader. Do keep the larger picture in mind while voting.

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  2. sumit

    Dear Sir;
    You are absolutely right,so called blue channels barking out about macro improvement signs,Capex flow & cyclical stocks as favour for next rally,India was on edge to be downgraded as junk in 2013 ,over past 2 to 3 quarters some relief seen on economic front,but this rally is more fueled by election rather than macros.
    Volatiles times ahead seen clearly from NDA internal problems hope modiji will do every effort possible to bind party.

  3. sunil

    Dear Sir,

    Greetings

    Please advice as to where can I see delivery in number as well as in
    percentage on a daily, weekly and monthly basis.
    Kindly also advice where can I see open interest in number as well as
    in percentage on a daily, weekly and monthly basis.

    Thanks and Best Regards
    “Be Happy and Give Thanks “

  4. Pratik

    Ravi ji ,

    what you said is true , I also agree with you ON

    “All about changing mind set according to situation”

    Parents takes care/ educates and gives teachings of religion to their
    children .But when kids grow up THEY send parents to Senior citizens home….!!! this is changing mind set now

    after all everything is fair in Politics…

  5. ravi gujarati

    This not a matter of giving respect
    But all about of changing mindset according to situation
    And all parties have corrupt members
    We have to chzoose less among them

  6. Pratik

    The man who worked hard for so many years should be given some respectable position. when BJP is having only 2 seats due to Advani
    Ayodhya and Ram /Ganga Yatra …BJP has reached to current stage.
    Many corrupt policticans are being welcomed to increase the Number game.
    (Pl. see daily TV headlines).

  7. ravi gujarati

    sir
    nice
    don’t you feel that 86 yrs old politician behave like child ?
    as a trader we follow the trend
    then why not in politics too ?
    shudnt he change his mindset ?
    considering market nothing to say what u hv mentioned
    u already prooved it
    too much optimism is dangerous
    whether it is in stockmarket or politics….

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