Nifty Weekly Analysis before RBI Policy

By | January 26, 2014

Last Week Chopad Level of 6266 got triggered on Monday and achieved 1 target on upside.In the run up to the FOMC meeting on Jan 30, where QE3 is expected to be tapered by $10billion, global Equity and currency market have turned jittery. Also sharp decline in value of Argentine PESO by ~15% during the week due to devaluation, other emerging market currencies have also depreciated. However, the INR may not depreciate much as the current account deficit is expected to fall to $50bln from earlier expected levels of ~$80bln and also exports have picked up and imports have declined. The F&O clearing settlement is scheduled on January 30,2014.RBI is expected to keep rates unchanged

Nifty Hourly Chart

nifty hourly

Nifty Hourly charts  took support at 200 HSMA, most likely will open gap down tomorrow. 6180-6150 is good support holding the same we can see a bounceback which can retrace till 6275-6300 odd levels.

Nifty Daily Chart

nifty daily

Nifty again took support at 20 DMA as shown in above chart and took resistance at falling trendline so sideways to choppy range is offing. The index is moving in the range of 6,130 and 6,415 since the first week of December.Till this range gets resolved buy support sell resistance is best stratergy.

 Nifty Gaps

For Nifty traders who follow gap trading there are 9 trade gaps in the range of  5300-6400

  • 5285-5303
  • 5448-5553
  • 5680-5700
  • 5780-5802
  • 6030-5995
  • 6092-6103
  • 6141-6145
  • 6331-6345

Fibonacci technique

Fibonacci fan

nifty ff

Nifty Fibonacci fan are wonderful tool to find the top and bottom in short term.Nifty made the life high of 6417 at resistance of Fibo Fan,took exact support at 6130.

nifty fibo

Nifty took the exact support at 61.8% retracement, next week looks crucial if 6192-6180 range is held bounceback else we can see a pullback till 6245-65.

 

Nifty Weekly Chart

nifty weekly

It was neutral week, with the Nifty was up by 5  and gaining 0.1%  closing @6266 forming a gravestone DOJI formation,Weekly close below 6130 is required for more downside, else pullback till 6300 is on cards.

Trading Monthly charts

nifty monthly

Triple top on Monthly chart which is bearish pattern.

 

 Nifty Trading Levels

Nifty Trend Deciding Level:6207

Nifty Resistance:6266,6337 and 6415

Nifty Support:6150,6091 and 6000 

Levels mentioned are Nifty Spot

Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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