Nifty Sep Expiry Analysis

By | September 25, 2013

FII_1

September Series is coming to an end, It has been an eventful series with Nifty making a low of 5303 and High of 6142 a move of 839 points, Stock market moved from the zone of extreme pessimism to over exuberance. Well thats the beauty of Stock market. The last 10 days has been quiet challenging for traders with Nifty swinging in a small range, frustrating traders on both ends, But traders who are following our Trend Decider level should have made good points. We have discussed in our weekly analysis September will be a bullish month and market obliged us.

 

  • FIIs sold 5346 contracts of Index Future (bought 2962 long contract and  8308 shorts were added) worth 130 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 11270 contracts.FII’s were mostly doing day trading today.
  • Nifty continued to find support near the Chopad level of 5806, and today also made low of 5811 before bouncing back. Nifty has been closing above 200 DMA, from past 2 weeks. Its a golden rule market makes 80% of move in 20% of time same holds true.

nifty daily

  • Nifty Future Sep Open Interest Volume is at 1.19 cores with liquidation of 17.1  lakhs in Open Interest,with huge rise in cost of carry.Rollover has started 78 lakh got rollover in past 4 trading days,Today 20 lakh got roll overed mostly longs in Nifty Futures.On Bullish day we have rollover of 33 lakh and on bearish its just 20 lakh suggesting undertone is Bullish for market.
  • Total Future & Option trading volume at  2.82  lakh with total contract traded at 3.6 lakh Cash volume is lower  from past 2 days suggesting fall is coming only from derivative selling and is technical in nature ,PCR (Put to Call Ratio) at 0.99, signalling more calls are getting traded.
  • 6000 Nifty CE  is having highest OI at 66.5  lakhs with addition of 2.2 lakhs in OI, Expiry mostly will be below 6000. 5900 CE added 11.3 lakh in OI suggesting 5900 suggesting call buying happening by retail traders.As per FII analysis 14 K long were covered in Calls, 10.5 K calls shorted calls were covered mostly in 6000 CE, suggesting FII are not seeing Nifty moving above 6000 in near term. 5500-6000 CE liquidated 16.9 lakh in OI.
  •  5800PE is having the highest OI of 56.5 lakhs,  suggesting strong support of Nifty at lower levels.5900-6000 PE liquidated  26 lakh in OI suggesting Bulls want to close the expiry above 200DMA. As per FII data 954  contract of PE were long and 6.3 K  fresh PE  shorted  were covered.5500-6000 PE liquidated huge 21.1  lakh in OI.
  • FIIs bought in Equity in tune of 383 cores ,and DII sold 473 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 62.41.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5868 (For Intraday Traders). NF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 5761 and BNF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 9938  .How to trade Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures as per Trend Changer Level .  Bank Nifty triggered the Trend Changer at 9930 incidentally it was the days low 🙂 and gave us profit 200 points. Nifty Future also made the exact high at trend deciding level

 

Buy above 5885 Tgt 5910, 5936 , 5964 and 5989 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 5852 Tgt 5840, 5816 and 5780 (Nifty Spot Levels)

 

Upper End Expiry:5952

Lower End of Expiry:5794

 

Live Nifty A/D charts  Click on the Link

Traders who use Pivot and Camarilla can use the following 2 sites for Hourly values and EOD values

 http://camarillapivotpoints.blogspot.com/
http://niftystockpivot.blogspot.in/

 

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