Nifty in Free Fall Mode, FII’s Data Analysis in NF and BNF

By | August 20, 2013

Hello Blog Readers,

Please accept my apologies for not intimating you well in advance I will not be updating the blog for next 2-3 days. I have informed on Facebook but should have said on site also.Lesson learnt 🙂 I am still pre-occupied by my work Blog will get updated by Thursday evening regularly. Thanks all for your calls/sms/emails. Markets are crashing and in turn many traders have asked for my advise, I have replied to most of emails and was in touch with most of my students who made a killing in recent 2 days mayhem. I am quiet happy for few of my students who lost completely confidence in trading but after training session have made a decent money and moreover are getting their confidence back in trading :). Keep following trading system with discipline and you can emerge as winner in Stock market. Lets move into FII Data analysis and see how far the markets can fall in current downtrend

  • FIIs sold 45104 contracts of Index Future (Entered fresh shorts in 55761 contracts and 10657 Longs) worth 1215 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 66418 contracts. So as per data analysis, FII’s are still entering in fresh shorts  in NF and BNF. How to deal with Trading Loss
  • Nifty has been falling like 9 Pins, because of Rupee woes, I have discussed 07 July Can rupee touch 65 to a dollar ? of possibility of Rupee touching 65 and eventually Stock market and Indian Economy paying the price. Well the thought process seems to turn out to be reality as Rupee has breached 63 yesterday and is trading at life low, So this is the answer to many traders question why is Rupee falling and eventually Stock market.From Technical Prospective  Nifty has been in Sell mode on Friday when it started trading below the Price Action Strategy level/Trend Changer level. Nifty has also closed below an Important Chopad level of 5426 and Next positional target comes around 5345 and 5296. Any close above 5426 will give the much awaited relief rally with target of 5475/5556. As the major trend is down traders are advised not to carry overnight long positions. Again i would reiterate, Do not get in habit of predicting tops and bottom of market just follow system and your trailing stop loss. 
  • Nifty Future Aug Open Interest Volume is at 1.91 cores with addition of 15.6 lakhs in Open Interest.
  • Total Future & Option trading volume at  2.30  lakh with total contract traded at 4.8 lakh , PCR (Put to Call Ratio) at 1.13. PCR has not come down substantially because of Huge put writing taking place. TO give perspective 5300 PE which made a Intraday High of 70  closed at 44, Due to excessive volatility and High IV’s Put writes are back in action. So what i want to convey even if markets are going down it does not mean you can blindly buy any Puts and just hold on to it, Having an exit plan is very very important when trading in Options in Highly volatile times. VIX closed at 25.69 and was up by 30% in August series.
  • 5700 Nifty CE  is having highest OI at 75 lakhs with addation of 11.9 lakhs in OI. 5500 CE added 14 lakh in OI will be resistance in short term  and 5400 CE added Huge 33 lakh in OI in single session. As per Option data OI analysis FII entered long in 30 K call options mostly in 5400 CE and also entered in 38K Call shorting mostly in 5700/5800 CE. So basically FII are playing for small pullback in NIfty. 5400-5700 CE added 63.9 lakh in OI.
  • 5300 PE OI at 65 lakh remain the highest OI, with addition of 16 lakh in OI, remains the firm support for time being. 5400 PE liquidated 20 lakh in OI and 5500 PE also liquidated 17.6 lakh in OI is next resistance for Nifty,As per Options Data analysis, FII has booked profit in 38.7 K Longs out of 1.25 lakhs which they entered on Friday and negligible  Put writing , so basically FII’s are booking profits in Logn Puts but No put writing taking place which suggests we are still not near bottom of market.5400-5700 PE liquidated 42 lakh  in OI.
  • FIIs sold in Equity in tune of 680 cores ,and DII bought 372cores in cash segment ,INR closed at 63 new life time low.
  • Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5420(For Intraday Traders).Nifty Trend Changer Level 5700 and Bank Nifty Trend Changer level 10070.Trading trading based on TC levels in NF had made more than 350+ point and BNF made more than 1000 points :).

 

Buy above 5428 Tgt  5440,5475 and 5491 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 5402 Tgt 5389,5361and 5345(Nifty Spot Levels)

 

Live Nifty A/D charts  Click on the Link

Traders who use Pivot and Camarilla can use the following 2 sites for Hourly values and EOD values

 http://camarillapivotpoints.blogspot.com/
http://niftystockpivot.blogspot.in/

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