Reason for Rupee slide against dollar

By | June 10, 2013

Dollar trading at 3 year High

As discussed US Dollar at 3-Year High   USD has touched its 3 year High at 84.3, US stock market are at life highs,Strength in USD indicated recovery in US economy, We have seen a slew of data indicating the same. Housing Market is recovering, Job situation is improving which make market participants believe the US Fed will be tapering of QE Infinity. Gold which was safe heaven for investor has been quiet volatile off late, So investor looking for stable and non volatile instruments has again turned their attention to USD. So strength in Dollar Index is one of the reason Rupee is depreciating at rapid pace.

 

Indian Economy Remains Weak

Indian Economy is still not out of woods, Consumer and Food Inflation is still at Highs, Fiscal Deficit is large, IIP is almost flat and Growth concerns still lingers. Rating agencies has told still their is 1/3 changes of reducing rating of India from Current of BBB- with a negative outlook to JUNK status if fiscal and current deficit are not brought under control.

 

Rising Import Bill

India is net Importer of OIL and GOLD, with fall in GOLD prices Indian consumers are buying more gold which is increasing the gap between Import and Export  and thus we are having a huge current account deficit and it putting more pressure on Rupee.

 

Euro Zone Recession

Eurozone is still battling with recession, Imports are coming under pressure as due to almost nil growth in Eurozone , Euro is trading well below its psychological level of 1.30. ECB has also committed to flood market with Euros if economic data does not imporove hence putting further pressure on EURO and lead to Buying in USD which will further put pressure on Rupee.

Weakness in domestic equities

Foreign institutional investors have been selling index futures in the last week. This is a hedging move as FIIs expect stocks (cash segment) to fall in the near term, traders said. FIIs have been a key support for markets (and the rupee) after buying over $15.38 billion (Rs. 90,000 crore) worth of shares this year as of last week.

 

Technical of USD INR

As discussed in  USD-INR will it hit all time low, Weekly forecast, USD has broken out of symmetrical triangle on Weekly chart which has target of Rs 60 in medium term.

 

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2 thoughts on “Reason for Rupee slide against dollar

  1. Bramesh Post author

    Right Jagannathan, I agree with your views

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  2. jagannathan

    Everyday i used to see your views and today you have reviewed the correct topic.But,the present congress government is not taking any steps as they are busy with collection of money for the next election and also they fear that they wont come in next election.RBI which is regid cannot take more action as they are not suppose to think about the Indian people.They have certain regulations and rules

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