India’s Q4 GDP at 4.8% at decade low

By | May 31, 2013

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, has released the provisional estimates of national income for the financial year 2012-13 and the quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2012-13, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices.

2. The CSO has also released the corresponding annual and quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP in current and constant (2004-05) prices, namely the private final consumption expenditure, government final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, change in stocks, valuables, and net exports.

I PROVISIONAL ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2012-13

3. The advance estimates of national income for the year 2012-13 were released on 7th February, 2013. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest estimates of agricultural production, index of industrial production and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking and insurance and government expenditure.

4. The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:

(a) Estimates at constant (2004-05) prices

Gross Domestic Product

5. GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in the year 2012-13 is now estimated at Rs. 55,05, 437 crore (as against Rs. 55,03,476 crore estimated earlier on 7th February, 2013), showing a growth rate of 5.0 percent over the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2011-12 of Rs. 52, 43,582 crore, released on 31th January 2013.

 

6. In the agriculture sector, the third advance estimates of crop production released by the Ministry of Agriculture showed a slight upward revision as compared to their second advance estimates in the production of rice (104.22 million Tonnes from 101.80 million Tonnes), wheat (93.62 million Tonnes from 92.30 million Tonnes) and sugarcane (336.15 million Tonnes from 334.5 million Tonnes) for the year 2012-13. Due to this revision in the production, ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector in 2012-13 has shown a growth rate of 1.9 percent, as against the growth rate of 1.8 percent in the Advance Estimates.

7. In the case of ‘mining and quarrying’, the Index of Industrial Production of Mining (IIP-Mining) registered a decline of 2.5 percent during 2012-13, as against the decline of 1.5 percent during April-November, 2012, which was used in the Advance Estimates. Production of coal and crude oil registered growth rates of 3.3 percent and (-) 0.6 percent in 2012-13 whereas during April to December, 2012, the growth rates were 5.7 percent and (-) 0.4 percent. The growth of ‘mining &quarrying’ is now estimated at (-) 0.6 percent, as against the Advance Estimate growth of 0.4 percent.

 

8. Similarly, the IIP of manufacturing registered a growth rate of 1.2 percent during 2012-13, as against the projected growth rate of 1.9 percent for April-March, 2012-13 for the Advance Estimates. Due to this, the growth of ‘manufacturing’ sector is now estimated at 1.0 percent, as against the Advance Estimate growth of 1.9 percent.

 

9. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth of 5.6 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively in 2012-13 as against 6.1 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively during April-December 2012. Consequently, the growth of the sector is revised downward to 4.3 percent as against 5.9 percent in the Advance Estimates.

 

10. The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown higher growth of 14.3 percent and 14.2 percent, respectively during 2012-13 over the corresponding period in 2011-12, as compared to growth of 11.1 percent and 15.2 percent as on December 2012. Indicators of Railways sector, namely, Net Tonne Kilometers and passenger Kilometers have have shown growth of 0.3 and 2.4 percent respectively during 2012-13 .The Trade, hotels and transport sector have registered a growth of 6.4 percent in 2012-13 as against 5.2 percent in the advance estimate released in February,2013 as the private corporate sector registered significant growth in the Trade, hotels and restaurent sector in 2012-13.

 

11. The sector ‘community, social and personal services’ has shown a growth of 6.6 percent in the revised estimates, as against the growth rate of 6.8 percent in the advance estimates.

 

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