Nifty Weekly Analysis for March Expiry 2013

By | March 24, 2013

Trading in stock markets will be volatile  in Holiday shortened week and March Derivative expiry, Political Uncertainty after DMK pullout on local front and Cyprus Bailout worries on Global front are added flavors for next week trading .Stock prices whipped on downside in volatile week and Nifty ended down 2.8% or 221 points  WoW basis. The bloodshed in mid and small-cap space  continued with stocks down between 20-45%.

Stock markets will remain shut on Wednesday and Friday on account of ‘Holi’ and ‘Good Friday’, respectively.

Last week we gave Trend Deciding level as 5880 Nifty made the high of 5864 turned back, achieved all the weekly targets on downside. Traders following Weekly trend deciding level should have minted good money.

 Nifty Hourly Chart

nifty-mar13h1

Nifty Hourly charts is forming a falling wedge pattern which is a bullish pattern and will get active once Nifty starts trading above 5693. Till it remains below this level trend will remains sell on rise with intraday rallies.

 

 Nifty Gaps

For Nifty traders who follow gap trading there are 1 trade gaps in the range of  5700-6000 and all other gaps got filled.

  • 5872-5863

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty daily chart is taking support at  the red Horizontal line support level as seen in below chart.Nifty is unable to break its 50 SMA on closing basis for 8 times in a rown from Feb 8, making 50 SMA@5937 as the zone of resistance for Nifty.Crossing the same Index has another test at 5971. On Downside below 5785 Index outlook turns bearish with the possibility of a decline to 5,679 or 5,511 in the upcoming weeks. This is what we discussed last week and 50 SMA did the trick for us 🙂 

Nifty Daily

Nifty has broken the symmetrical triangle pattern on downside as shows in below chart. Target of symmetrical triangle comes at 5525.

Nifty Daily

Nifty Bear Indicator  is trading at -180 odd levels which suggest deep oversold range, Last time it touched the level Nifty gave 200 points rally. Same can be repeated this time as we are near to important support of 5620 also.

nifty-mar13-d1-you-trade-holdings-2

 

Fibonacci technique

Nifty Weekly chart took support at Fibo Fans trendline another indication we are getting that downside is limited and we can see a counter trend rally.

 Fibo Retracement

Fib Retracement

As per of Fibo Retracement theory Resistance at 5664 which is 80% retracement holding and closing above the same bounceback can be seen

 

Nifty Weekly Chart

Nifty closed the week negative  with loss of 221 points @5651.Nifty took resistance at 20 Weekly Moving average and kept falling down. Now Weekly chart are also at important support zone of 5620. Holding the same Counter trend rally can be seen in Expiry week.
Nifty Weekly Support
Last 2 times Nifty touched the Lower end of Fibo level it gave a strong pullback as seen in below chart, Will it be 3 time lucky?
Nifty Weekly Support

Trading Monthly charts

 

Nifty Monthly

Monthly chart declined after taking resistance at 6112. Till Nifty does not cross 6034, Monthly charts will remain bearish.Analyzing Higher time is always beneficial for positional traders. So net on net Shorts should be booked 80% and no longs should be taken till it moves above the level of 5693 in next 2 days of trading.

 Nifty Trading Levels

Nifty Trend Deciding Level:5620

Nifty Resistance:5693,5730 and 5762

Nifty Support:5580,5555 and 5520

Levels mentioned are Nifty Spot

Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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2 thoughts on “Nifty Weekly Analysis for March Expiry 2013

  1. Bramesh Post author

    Thanks, Sure will write an article on the same.

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  2. mbhaskarrao

    very nice and realistic analysis. explained all possibilities. sir pl. write and explain in simple way to understand options basics then using options to understand the trend of nifty. thank you

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