Nifty Tanks:Cyprus Bailout Summary

By | March 18, 2013

This is Insane, People loosing 7-10% of capital on Life saving with just one executive decision by Cyprus Government …..Cash machines on the island have already been reprogrammed to print out a warning of the so-called “stability levy” which will see 6.75 per cent extracted by the Cypriot government from every bank account on the island, and 9.9 per cent if the deposits are more than 100,000 euros. This will raise a sum worth 5.8bn euros, or a third of Cyprus’s GDP.

Via Bloomberg,

 * Moody’s

Cyprus bailout negative for depositors across Europe; implication for sovereigns unclear; Cyprus has negative implications for EU banks creditors

May hurt bank ratings across Europe; shows EU will act to monetary Union

 * HSBC

Decision to impose levy could trigger market contagion

 * Nomura

Sees more downside risk for EUR/USD, EUR/CHF on Cyprus

Is buying 1.30 EUR put/USD call with 3-month tenor at Asia open to gain exposure to downside move; also cutting long EUR/CHF spot positions until there is greater clarity

 * Rabobank

Yield hunt may mean risk-off tone may be short-lived; in the contagion stakes, Cyprus has clear potential to “punch far above its weight”

 * Saxo Bank

Decision to impose level  “very good for gold” and safe-haven countries like Singapore and Switzerland and “economically more healthy” Scandinavian countries that don’t use the euro should also benefit

 * Citigroup

There is room to amend Cyprus agreement

 * AMP Capital Investors

Cyprus situation could “lead to some worries regarding renewed contagion across Europe”

Compared with banks in Italy, Spain and Ireland, “the risk of the same occurring is extremely low and close to zero, but we could go through a short period of nervousness until we see how the rest of Europe responds and the ECB responds”

 * Barclays

Decision to impose losses on Cypriot depositors is the latest sign of an “ominous trend” for bondholders

 * Brown Brothers Harriman

“We do not expect savers to be fearful of a confiscation of their savings and spark a run on banks”

 * BTIG

Bailout likely to shake investors’ recent “unshakable confidence” in ever higher prices

 * Cumberland Advisors

“No sensible foreign depositor would continue to keep money in a banking system that just took nearly 10% of his deposit without any notice”

 * Goldman

While controversial, involvement of non-residents in bailout was foreseeable, and “sends signal” to taxpayers in other nations that domestics won’t bear costs alone

Contagion potential – The Cypriot tax is certain to prompt depositors in GIIPS banks to assess two issues: (1) the probability of savings participating in bank clean-ups (“bail-in”) and (2) perceiving their savings as a potential base for a “wealth tax”.

 * JPMorgan

Difficult to overstate the extend of popular anger in Cyprus; return to “more stressful” episode of debt crisis possible

 * SocGen

Bailout may be crisis trigger; “this will probably go down as an ill thought out rescue plan with consequences for peripheral Europe”

 

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