Nifty forecast for next week 11 Mar – 15 Mar

By | March 10, 2013

Bears after ruling the Dalal Street from past 5 weeks got a knock out punch from Bulls as they were able to rally 4% . Dow Jones at Life time high, Europe at 2008 High and Japan above 12000 propelled the risk on rally and nifty also rallied with its peers. Week ahead promises to be  more fast-paced action as share market will await the factory output data on Tuesday and inflation on Thursday, which are expected to set expectations ahead of the central bank’s monetary policy decision on March 19. Moody’s prophesy that the worst may be over for the Indian economy and that it could grow at 7 per cent from 2014 also helped improve the sentiment on the street.

Last week we gave Trend Deciding level as 5765 Nifty as soon as Nifty moved above it achieved all the weekly targets. Traders following Weekly trend deciding level should have minted good money and should have avoided taking shorts.

 

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly

Hourly charts are trading in a perfect up trending channel after making low of 5664. Rally again got started with a gap up and added more fire after moving above 50 Hour SMA and is now trading at upper end of channel. Unable to close above 5971 pullback till 5900 should be expected.

 

 Nifty Gaps

For Nifty traders who follow gap trading there are 3 trade gaps in the range of  5700-6000.

  • 5699-5722
  • 5784-5795
  • 5863-5883

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty daily chart bounced from the red line support level as seen in below chart. Its approaching the 8 months old trendline which it broke in feb, Resistance comes at 6041 odd levels. This trendline can put a break on to the risk on rally which we are witnessing.

Nifty Daily

 

Nifty Daily Chart with Indicators

Nifty Daily

 

Positive Divergence which we discussed last week, atlast showed its effect with a explosive move. MACD is giving BUY signal and Nifty is trading in a perfect upward channel with support at 5883.

Fibonacci technique

Fibo Fans

As discussed earlier Fibonacci fan helps in finding potential tops and Bottom of market from short term prospective.We have used Weekly chart and applied Fibo Fans, Nifty was able to close above the Fibo Fans support of 5880 which is negative  signs for Bears, Next level of resistance  comes at 6000

 Fibo Retracement

Fib Retracement

As per of Fibo Retracement theory Support at 5672 

which is at 5942, from 5664-6112. Closing above this on weekly basis will add more fuel to fire.

 

Nifty Weekly Chart

Nifty closed the week positive with a Bullish engulfing pattern  with gain of 226 points @5946. Lower low  formation is invalidated with a move above 5800 on Weekly charts.Volumes were on lower side eventhough we had a 4% rally on Nifty. On Weekly chart nifty is entering a zone of resistance of 5954-5072 which is trendline resistance as shown in below chart marked with red line and cluster of medium of moving average resistance.
Nifty Weekly
Nifty has took support of 34 EMA on weekly charts,bounced sharply with 4% move.
Nifty Weekly Support

Trading Monthly charts

 

Nifty Monthly

Monthly chart declined after taking resistance at 6112. Till Nifty does not cross 6034, Monthly charts will remain bearish.Monthly chart are now near important trendline support of 5672 as discussed last week and Nifty made a low of 5664 and bounced back. Analyzing Higher time is always beneficial for positional traders.

 Nifty Trading Levels

Nifty Trend Deciding Level:5971

Nifty Resistance:6038,6084 and 6120

Nifty Support:5883,5848 and 5801

Levels mentioned are Nifty Spot

Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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4 thoughts on “Nifty forecast for next week 11 Mar – 15 Mar

  1. prasan jain

    sir,
    your analysis are great and very helpful. thanks a lot for your selfless services for the small and immature traders. keep it up
    prasan jain

  2. Dinesh Kumar

    Dear Sir,

    Great Analysis as always, very useful.

    Regards,

    Dinesh

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