Is Rally over in Nifty? FII F&O Analysis for 14 March trade

By | March 13, 2013

FII

1. FIIs sold 7579 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 223 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 13351 contracts. Mastering Fear in trading

2. As CNX Nifty Future was down by 69  points, with Open Interest in Index Futures decreasing by 13351 so FII have covered  shorts  in today’s session at lower levels.

3. NS closed at 5851 after  making high of 5894 and low of 5842, Nifty opened gap down and was unable to fill the gap, and continued with its downfall throughout the session . Nifty has reacted sharply from Weekly Trend Deciding Level of 5971 yesterday and also closed below 50 SMA@5943 for 5 time in a row from Feb 8. So a combination of both Weekly trend deciding level and 50 sma is  giving leverage to bears to pull index down. Nifty has closed near the golden ratio 61.8% of 5664-5971. Range of 5820-5850 becomes an important support zone and traders carrying shorts from higher level should lighten up in this range.

 

4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5862 and 5894 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5820 and 5842.Today 5865 was broken on closing basis. As per OI analysis getting signal of range bound move in range of 5820-5971.

5. Nifty Future March Open Interest Volume is at 1.54 cores with liquidation of  6.14 lakh in Open Interest with fall  in Cost of Carry of Nifty Future  to showing traders have liquidated long position in Index Futures after taking longs in morning but with fall in ending of session longs were liquidated.

6. Total Future & Option trading volume at 1.33 lakh Cores with total contract traded 1.88 lakh , PCR (Put to Call Ratio) at 1.30 and VIX at 16.20 .VIX has risen by 22% in past 3 trading sessions. Thats the reason why Options premium shooted up in today’s session.

7. 6000 Nifty CE  is having highest OI at 74.2 Lakh with addition of  7.01 Lakhs, 5900 CE added 8.94 lakhs having OI of 63.8 lakhs ,5800 CE also added 7.5 lakhs in OI.6200 CE liquidated just 0.55 lakh in OI with net premium at rs 3.5 after 5.5 lakh addition yesterday .5500-6200 Call Options added 21.6 lakhs in OI.

8. 5700 Put Option is having highest  Open Interest of  1.30 cores with addition  of 10.9  lakhs in OI  5700 is wall of Support , 5800 PE liquidated  9.2  lakhs with  OI  at 97 lakhs and 5900 PE liquidated  6 lakhs in OI with net OI at 66.4 lakhs suggesting Bulls liquidated position as nifty closed below 5900, 5500-5600 PE both combined added 21 lakh in OI with premium of both shooting up 50% and 40% in matter of day , thanks to ri sing vix and fall in Nifty. 5500-6200 Put Options added 11.8 lakhs in OI. As per Option table 5800 will provide support and dips near 5800 should be bought into.

9. FIIs bought in Equity in tune of 304 cores,and DII sold 434 cores in cash segment,INR closed at 54.03 Live INR Chart for market hours and currency traders

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5877(For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5842 NF(For Positional Traders). (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand). Bank Nifty Future Trend Changer Level 11901.

Buy above 5862 Tgt 5883, 5900,5914

Sell below 5841 Tgt 5820,5801and 5784 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Traders who use Pivot and Camarilla can use the following 2 sites for Hourly values and EOD values

 

http://camarillapivotpoints.blogspot.com/
http://niftystockpivot.blogspot.in/

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8 thoughts on “Is Rally over in Nifty? FII F&O Analysis for 14 March trade

  1. Bramesh Post author

    Thanks harsimran sir..

    Lets be conservative in our trade..

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  2. Bramesh Post author

    Dear Hari,

    Yes Inverse HnS is formed with neckline at 5971.

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  3. Bramesh Post author

    Dear Mangoman,

    I am not here to prove my analysis right,I am here to make money. If you have gone through my article i do not prefer trading in Options, irrespective of how tempting the trade looks. Weekly trend deciding level has guided us to be cautious, high risk traders took shorts and conservative traders booked out longs. So we trade as per our system instead of taking high risk trade which might vanish our whole capital if trade goes wrong side.

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  4. mangoman

    Guys,

    I just said low risk high return only..anyway market has place for all analysts..end of this month we would know…who knows..you may be right…the put buying may not be by FII’s

  5. Hari

    It looks like Nifty formed ‘Inverse Head and Shoulders’ pattern.

  6. harsimran

    mangoman g if u r nt convinced wid his system try your own. he is just guiding and not asking you to do in his way.its ur wish u wanna buy puts go ahead, market may greet you

  7. Bramesh Post author

    Dear Sir,

    Views remain the same, I believe in making consistent returns not risking my capital for High return gains..

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  8. mangoman

    Bramesh,

    Now, Any change in view about the puts bought by FII for the past 3 days? If you convince that FII indeed bought these then may be you can give us a low risk high return target for the month.

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