Nifty Weekly Outlook for 04-08 Feb

By | February 3, 2013

RBI delivered what market was expecting cut in Repo and CRR but Nifty has been down from past 5 trading session. As the rate cut had already been factored in by the markets and profit booking followed. Many traders were surprised the way Nifty behaved, market always behave irrationally and its always better to trade as per levels. We are saying from past 2 weeks till 6100 is not broken on closing basis, Trend remains Sell on Rise and Nifty is obliging to it. Government has announced the Budget session dates, Railway Budget on 26 Feb and Annual Budget on 28 Feb which is also expiry day. So rise in volatility should be expected as the event comes near.

Lets discuss Nifty Trading Strategy for Next week.

 

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly

Nifty is trading below 50 SMA which lies at 6052. Nifty made a brief move above 6100 made a new 52 week high of 6112 only to fall back below Weekly Trend Deciding level of 6100 and falling all the way to 5998. Hourly charts are in oversold zone and Bounce back till 50 SMA can be expected.

 

 Nifty Gaps

For Nifty traders who follow gap trading there are 4 trade gaps in the range of  5700-6000.

  • 5727-5736
  • 5856-60
  • 5870-5880
  • 5951-5982

So these levels should be noted down carefully by Nifty trader to find further Nifty support and resistance.

 

 

 

 

 

Nifty Daily Chart

Technically till 6100 is not broken on closing basis Nifty will continue with its trend of Sell on Rise . This is what we discussed in Jan 25 analysis  and Nifty made a High of 6112 after RBI rate cut  and again turned back and made low till 5984 hope traders made use of analysis were able to benefit out of the rally. Coming week nifty has broken out of rising wedge pattern and Next level of support comes at 5940 range.

Nifty Daily

 

Nifty Daily Chart with Indicators

Nifty Daily

 

MACD indicator gave a SELL RSI broke 50 and Stoch is also in Sell mode. 5945 which was previous high should act as support, below that 5890.

Fibonacci technique

Fibo Fans

As discussed earlier Fibonacci fan helps in finding potential tops and Bottom of market from short term prospective.We have used Weekly chart and applied Fibo Fans, Nifty has closed below the Fibo Fan support of 6040 on weekly basis. Next Support comes near 5890. So fall till 5890 can be expected if 6040 is not captured in next 2 days.

 Fibo Retracement

Fib Retracement

Nifty is consolidating around 80% retaracement 5545-6100.5990 will be  a strong support for next week.  This is what we discussed last week Nifty made a low of 5884 and bounced back till 5998,Next week breaking of 5884 will lead further decline till 5940 and Golden Ratio level of 5890. Holding the same bounce back till 6100 is expected.

 

Nifty Weekly Chart

Nifty Weekly Support

Nifty has formed bearish engulfing  candlestick pattern closed the week negative with loss of 75 points @5998 and below the psychological level of 6000.Higher Highs formation is intact but Higher low  formation is breached with low of 5884  on Weekly charts and Nifty is near the crucial trendline support of 5940-5980 region.
Nifty Weekly
As seen in above chart Weekly chart are nearing the trendline support of 5980,below it 5940 is an important rising trendline support.Negative divergence in Stochastic is still maintained in Weekly charts.

Trading Monthly charts

 

Nifty Monthly

Monthly chart are approaching higher end trendline at 6120 closing above it will give a fresh breakout in monthly chart.Nifty January made High of 6112 and started its decline.So crossing and closing above 6120 is required for fresh breakout.

 Nifty Trading Levels

Nifty Trend Deciding Level:6004

Nifty Resistance:6050,6100 and 6147

Nifty Support:5950,5900 and 5874

Levels mentioned are Nifty Spot

Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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