Nifty Trading Strategy based on FII F&O analysis

By | February 6, 2013

FII

1. FIIs sold 18902 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 563 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 11282 contracts. Misconceptions Of Stock Trading Part -I

2. As CNX Nifty Future was down  by 1  points with Open Interest in Index Futures decreasing by 11282 FII have booked some profit  in Nifty and Bank Nifty future shorts .Nifty is lacking strength to move up above 6000 from last week as any gap up opening is meet by selling,bears overpowering the Bulls. Clients who learnt gap theory covered in our trading course must be making good money in past few days,

3. NS closed at 5959 after opening gap up on strong global cues making high of 5990 and low of 5953.Nifty made the high near our second resistance of 5981 As discussed yesterday . Today after 7 days of straight decline Nifty closed in green by 2 points, but unable to close above 6000.

 

4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5982 and 6005  which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5945 and 5930.Trend is Sell on Rise till 6025 is not broken on closing basis.

5. Nifty Future Feb Open Interest Volume is at 1.29 cores with liquidation of  1.3  lakh in Open Interest Cost of Carry of Nifty Future increased sharply to 6.3 showing shorts covering at lower levels.Nifty Future  has formed an NR7 day today with second lowest volume in 2013 so expect some good move tomorrow.

6. Total Future & Option trading volume at 0.71 lakh Cores with total contract traded  at 1.19 lakh  , PCR (Put to Call Ratio) at 0.82  and VIX at 14.35.FII are daily pouring in 500+ cores on daily basis in cash market and futures market volumes are lowest in 2013, as many FII has moved to SGX Nifty as its Open Interest has shot up by almost 50% due to less transaction costs.

7. 6100 Call Option is having highest Open Interest of 64  lakhs with addition of  5.1 lakhs in Open Interest premium at 28, 6200 Nifty CE  is having second highest OI at 56 lakh  addition  of  8.7 lakhs in OI,6000 CE also added 3.9 lakhs in OI so Bears have started building position in 6000 CE  .5700-6300 Call Options added 22.7 lakhs in OI.

8. 5900 Put Option is having highest  Open Interest of  53 lakhs with addition of 2 lakhs in OI so still Bulls are forming new base at 5900 PE, 6000 PE writers just held on to there positions as OI change was negligible . 5700 PE  again added 7.2 lakhs with Option premium at Rs 9,so 5700 PE needs to be watched closely as it has added 50  lakhs in 4 days.5700-6300 Put Options added 12.3  lakhs in OI.

9. FIIs buying in Equity in tune of 1137 cores and DII sold 1224cores in cash segment,INR closed at 53.06 Live INR rate @ http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/).

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5997(For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 6020 NF(For Positional Traders). (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand). Bank Nifty Future Trend Changer Level 12642. NF were unable to cross Trend Decider Level of 5999 today and gave a steep fall :).Within small range traders can make some money

Buy above 5970 Tgt 5981,6005 and 6025

Sell below 5945 Tgt 5931,5920,5900(Nifty Spot Levels)

Traders who use Pivot and Camarilla can use the following 2 sites for Hourly values and EOD values

http://camarillapivotpoints.blogspot.com/
http://niftystockpivot.blogspot.in/

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