Nifty Futures Technical Analysis – Intraday and Positional Trading calls

By | January 7, 2013

FII

1. FIIs sold 8319 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 254 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 6193 contracts.

2. As CNX Nifty Future was up by 8 points with Open Interest in Index Futures decreasing by 6193, so FIIs have booked profit  in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures.Rise which we saw in first part of January was not backed by volumes and no major conviction buying by FII.

3. NS closed at 24 month high 6016 after making high of 6021 (Almost near to our resistance level of 6021 as discussed yesterday) and low of 5982.Nifty has crossed two major resistance 5930 and 5965 with gap ups and these gaps remains unfilled. But as these are not runaway gaps so Nifty should pull back and fill these gaps.Read Weekly Analysis

4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 6031 and 6045 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 6006 and 590.Trend is Buy on Dips till 5920 is not broken on closing basis.

5. Nifty Future January Open Interest Volume is at 1.67 cores with liquidation of 3.5 lakh in Open Interest,So with 6 days in Series OI has not crossed 2 cores which suggests Nifty rise was not backed with conviction of large players so this week could confirm breakout was fake or true. Cost of Carry of Nifty Future increased to 9 with fall in OI suggesting short build up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

6. Total Future & Option trading volume at 0.84 lakh Cores with total contract traded  at 1.22 lakh, PCR (Put to Call Ratio) at 1.07 suggesting Bulls and Bears are at crossheads and VIX at 13.37. We saw the rise above 6000 but contracts traded has NF has not even crossed 1.5 lakhs from start of year. Volatility is compressed and expansion will come soon with rise in volume.Cash market volumes are highest today in Jan series so if 6020 is not broken it can be case of distribution at higher levels.

7. 6200 Call Option is having highest Open Interest of 80.1 lakhs with liquidation of 0.49 lakhs in Open Interest, 6300 Nifty CE  is having second highest OI at 50 lakh also saw liquidation of 2.2 lakhs in OI,6100 Call Option added 2.97 lakhs in OI with Option premium at Rs 54,  .5700-6300 Call Options liquidated 4.8 lakhs in OI.

8. 5800 Put Option is having Open Interest of 63.7 lakhs with addition of 5.2 lakhs in OI so firm base is set up at 5800 and 5900 Put Option added 1.5 lakhs with OI at 57.9 Lakhs,6000 PE added another 4.5 lakhs in OI suggesting bulls are trying to make base at 6000 .5700-6300 Put Options added 20.2 lakhs in OI.Bulls are in control as per option analysis.

9. FIIs buying in Equity in tune of 1164.11 cores and DII sold 825 cores in cash segment,INR closed at 55.3 Live INR rate @ http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/).

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 6050(For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5993 NF(For Positional Traders). (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand). Bank Nifty Future Trend Changer Level 12712.

Buy above 6022 Tgt 6035,6050 and 6077

Sell below 5980 Tgt 5951,5937,5920(Nifty Spot Levels)

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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