Nifty Futures trading strategy for Dec Expiry

By | December 26, 2012

FII

1. FIIs  bought 5766  Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 163.02 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 77028 contracts.

2. As CNX Nifty Future was up by 48 points with Open Interest in Index Futures increasing by 77028, so FIIs have created longs  in  Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures.As discusses yesterday we have formed an NR7 day and today should be range day and nifty rallied when it mattered the most.

3. NS closed at 5905 after making high of 5916 and low of 5860.Nifty was unable to break 5825 and is near the lower end of trading range so if 5825 is not broken on closing basis tommrow we can see a Bullish expiry as it happened in last expiry market shooting up in last 3 days.  This is what we discussed yesterday and today we had the first move by Bulls. Tomorrow best case will be Nifty making a new 52 week high by breaking 5965.

4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5930 and 5952 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5885 and 5862.Trend is Buy on Dips till 5825 is not broken on closing basis.

5. Nifty  Future December  Open Interest Volume is at 1.21 cores with liquidation  of  8  lakh in Open Interest, Cost of Carry of NF increased   to 52,This high price is due to rollovers taking place in NF  . Rollovers have also started in NF and Jan Nifty futures added 31.6 lakh in OI, So longs got rollovered to next series.

 

 

 

6. Total Future & Option trading  volume was  at 1.85  lakh  Cores  with total contract traded 1.8 lakh,  PCR (Put to Call Ratio) at 0.89 and VIX  at  14.10.2 days before we have discussed do nt get panic by the fall we have seen as VIX has not moved much and same thing happened as anticipated we are back above 5900.

7.  6000 Call Option  is having highest Open Interest of 1.13 Cores  with liquidation of 3.7 lakhs in Open Interest, 5900 Nifty CE also saw liquidation of 18 lakhs in OI. .5500-6100 Call Options liquidated huge 41 lakhs in OI.

8. 5800 Put Option is having  Open Interest of 92 lakhs with addition of 1.2 lakhs in OI so firm base is set up at 5800 and 5900 Put Option added 14 lakhs with OI at 59 Lakhs so  Bulls camp was back in action and intitated shorts in 5900 Put as premium fell from 44 to rs 12 .5500-6100 Put Options liquidated  49 lakhs in OI. So looking at OI table once 5925 is taken off we should go and touch the 5965 and last 30 mins we can even scale towards 6000 levels, Interesting expiry ahead.

9. FIIs  buying in Equity in tune of 743 cores and DII  bought 300cores in cash segment,INR closed  at  54.98 Live INR rate  @ http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/).

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5905(For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5915 NF(For Positional Traders). (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).  Bank Nifty Future Trend Changer Level 12395.

Buy above 5917 Tgt 5930,5950 and 5965

Sell below 5893 Tgt 5880,5865,5850(Nifty Spot Levels)

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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2 thoughts on “Nifty Futures trading strategy for Dec Expiry

  1. Bramesh Post author

    Dear Sir,

    You need to have understanding on OI to understand the difference of 70K

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  2. mangoman2012

    how the OI of futures increases to 70 K when the net buy net sell difference is only 6 k. This is always confuses me.

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