FII F&O Data analysis for 5 Oct trade in Nifty Future

By | October 4, 2012

Indian Government has unleashed second wave of  Big Bang Reform 2:Cabinet clears FDI in insurance, pension sector http://bit.ly/PYLlzI .

Nifty had already had an inkling about this and the reason After showing seven sessions of small range trading sessions which we discussed yesterday consolidation with positive bias , Nifty finally staged upside breakout of the overhead resistance of 5740-45 and made a fresh 18 month high of 5807.

Will this rally continue lets see how FII are trading the market?

1. FII bought 24911  Contracts of Index Future,worth 714 cores with net OI decreasing by 1843 contracts.

2. As Nifty Future was up by 57 points and  Open Interest in Index Futures decreased by 1843,so  FII have booked partial profits  Index Future longs in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures.Big Bang Reform 2might turn out to be Buy Rumor and Sell news kind of event.

3. NS closed at 5787 after making a 18 month high of 5807 but unable to close above 5800 on closing basis,Bulls are in control of market as they have closed nifty above 5740 on closing basis .As discussed the double bottom effect at 5638 is showing up. Another gap has been created today from 5731-5751

4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5807 and 5838 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5775 and 5745 .Trend is Buy on Dips till 5680 is not broken on closing basis.

5. Nifty  Future October  Open Interest is at 2.56 cores with a addition of 5 Lakh in OI,longs got added in Nifty future.Only point of Concern is the 2.56 Cores in OI with just 4 days into the October series, now this clearly shows overconfidence of Bulls. Most probably we will see a dip in market so that weak bulls are flushed out. So hold longs with Strict stoploss.

6. Total F&O turnover was  at 1.09 lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at  2.22 lakh. PCR at 0.94 and VIX  at 16.44, VIX is also trading at its lower end of range and a upmove till 18.5-19 is on cards.

7.  6000 CE  is having highest Open Interest of 60 lakhs with fresh addition of 0.50 lakhs in OI.5900 CE Open Interest at 50 is second highest  lakhs, with fresh addition of 3 lakhs.5800 CE saw an unwinding of 10 lakhs so bears were taken by surprise with Nifty above 5800 and ran for cover and 6100 CE also added 6.4 lakhs ,premium of Rs 8.7 in OI which suggests speculative activity have started in higher calls.5400-6100 CE saw an unwinding of added 6.7 lakhs in Open Interest.

8. 5700 PE is having highest Open Interest of 55.8 lakhs with fresh addition of  7.2 lakhs in OI,Bulls want to make  5700 as base for starting of October Series.5800 PE added 13 lakhs in OI premium being 71 so bulls are now concentrating on 5800 PE. With small base in OI of 28 lakhs if tomorrow we see it coming towards 40 lakhs 5800 can act as base else bulls will need to run for cover as they are becoming overconfident. 5400-6100 PE added 27.9 lakhs in Open Interest.

9.FII  bought 944 cores and DII  sold 818 cores in cash segment,INR closed at at 51.83  Live INR rate @ http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/).FII sold 157.66 cores in Stock Futures.

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5781(For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5751 NF(For Positional Traders). (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).

Buy above 5812 Tgt 5838,5850 and 5875

Sell below 5782 Tgt 5757,5731 and 5720 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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