RBI disappointed the marke with NO rate cut but giving a Hint of possible rate easing in Next Meeting Nifty used it as an excuse to break the trading range of 5635-5725. As per our analysis Trend was Sell on Rise so traders must have profited out from today’s fall.
1. FII sold 23029 Contracts of Index Future,worth 535 cores with net OI decreasing by 14373 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down 74 points and Open Interest in Index Futures decreased by 14373, so FII again liquidated longs which were rollovered from October series.Sideways consolidation movement of the last 13 days has ended today as Nifty finally staged sharp downside breakout of that consolidation pattern.
3. NS closed at 5597 after making a high of 5689 and low of 5589 .At last Nifty spot broke the frustrating range of 5725 and 5638. Now the most Important levels to watch is 5585 as discussed in Nifty Weekly Analysis
4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5625 and 5642 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5585 and 5554 .Trend is Sell on Rise till 5692 is not broken on closing basis. We have monthly closing tomorrow and we need to close above 5606 to keep the bullish trend intact.
5. Nifty Future November Open Interest is at 1.79 cores with addition of 0.91 lakh in OI,short addition in NF. Premium has reduced in NF to 30 points after today’s fall which is good sign.Cost of Carry of NF has come down to 6.7 from 10.1 yesterday which denotes weak hands are thrown out of system today.
6. Total F&O turnover was at 1.36 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.91 lakh, PCR at 0.85 and VIX at 15.17.Cash market Volume rose today with the fall in Nifty delivery based selling seen in PSU banks after RBI increased provisioning of banks from 2 to 2.75%.
7. 5900 CE is having highest Open Interest of 55 Lakhs with addition of 13 lakhs in OI premium at Rs 11 ,5700 CE added 13.9 lakhs in OI with net OI at 47 Lakhs and 5600 CE added 11 lakhs in OI so 5700 becomes the immediate resistance for Nifty. 5400-6000 CE added 52 lakhs in OI.
8. 5600 PE is having Open Interest of 49 lakhs so 5600 is strong base for Nifty from start of November series which got tested today tomorrow we need to see if 5600 PE writers are able to contain the fall. 5400 PE again added 3 lakhs in OI ,so 21 lakhs OI added in 3 days with premium of Rs 23. FII were net buyers in Options worth 1207 cores and in 3 days have bought options worth 4335 cores so we will see trending moves ahead .5400-6000 PE added 11 lakhs in OI
9. FII sold 191 cores and DII sold 31 cores in cash segment.
10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5619(For Intraday Traders), Trend Changer at 5701 NF(For Positional Traders). (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand). Bank Nifty Future Trend Changer Level 11540
Buy above 5626 Tgt 5641,5662,5692
Sell below 5585 Tgt 5554,5525 and 5500 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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