Nifty Weekly Outlook for October 2012

By | September 30, 2012

Nifty ended the Q3 with a positive note and a fresh 52 Week high of 5735  but we are entering Q4 with some bad data which came out today. Current Account Deficit came in at 3.9% of GDP against an expectation of 3.3%. Indian Rupee closed at 52.69 almost at 6 month high on sustained FII flows.

2 October will be Holiday on account of Gandhi Jayanti, China market will be closed from whole week and Hongkong market will be closed on 1 and 2 October so expect a dull trading for start of Q4.

HSBC PMI data will come on Monday as Economic data from Indian Market perpective.

Whats in store for next week lets jump and see the Nifty technical outlook

 

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly chart took support at rising trendline at 5695 on Friday and closed above 5700. Now we are near a trend line congestion near 5740-5775 range and pullback should be expected from this range. Friday also we were unable to cross 5740 so next week will be decider in terms of will 5740 remain elusive for bulls or not?

Nifty Gaps

Gaps formation in Nifty Daily chart pattern, 4 gaps in the range of  5077-5600. Do note the GAP formed on Friday was Breakaway Gap

  • 5043-5077
  • 5238-5309
  • 5303-5309
  • 5399-5415
  • 5435-5526
  • 5554-5575
  • 5650-5683 (Formed this week)

So these levels should be noted down carefully to find further support and resistance.

 

Nifty Daily Chart

Bulls took support at 5638 formed double bottom after consolidation and made a close above 5700 first time after April 2011 but still unable to close above 5740.If we observe Daily chart closely tricky range comes as 5740-5775,Closing above this 5900 is done deal.

If one look at last 2 times nifty scaled 5900 ie, Sep 2010 and March 2011 after closing 5648 it took only 5 and 9 trading sessions to reach 5900, So will History repeat itself ?

Nifty Fibo Retracement

Nifty Fibonacci Retracements from 4531-5630 are drawn in above chart,Major resistance at 61.8% Golden ratio at 5648 which nifty took support  last week made double bottom at 5638 and bounced,successfully closed above it. Now unable to cross 5740 pullback can be seen till 5735 odd levels.

Nifty Fibonacci Fans

As discussed earlier Fibo Fans helps in finding potential tops and Bottom of market from short term prospective. If we see the chart closely Nifty has formed a potential top for the time being if 5735 is not crossed by next 2-3 trading sessions.

Nifty Weekly Chart

Nifty was up .98% WoW basis, closed above crucial trend line resistance, As discussed last week 5635 should provide support we made a low of 5638 and bounced back . Only concern is Doji Candlestick formed on Weekly charts and Shooting star on Daily charts both of which are reversal patterns but follow up price action is required.

Close above 5740 can further fuel the rally on Upside till 5850 as seen in above Nifty Weekly chart with trendline.

Nifty Monthly Chart

 Close above 5217 is bullish for market for rest of year.Support on Monthly charts comes at 5498.As shown in below chart September is month of Big moves and we have moved 8.5% . October series after big move seen in September should be a cool off month in which we will see range trading moves from 5500-5850.

 

Nifty Trend Deciding Level:5745

Nifty Resistance:5775,5820 and 5875

Nifty Support:5631,5581 and 5537


Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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