FII F&O Data analysis for 7 Sep trade in Nifty Future

By | September 6, 2012

Mario Draghi has delivered the Bazooka for Bulls by saying the below points in his press conference. EU Market are roaring with US markets also climbing as ADP Jobs At 5-Month High

  • ECB HAS DECIDED ON MODALITY FOR BOND PURCHASES IN SECONDARY MARKET
  • DRAGHI SAYS PURCHASES WILL ADDRESS DISTORTIONS IN BOND MARKETS
  • DRAGHI SAYS ECB WILL HAVE A FULLY EFFECTIVE BACKSTOP
  • DRAGHI SAYS ECB WILL ACT STRICTLY WITHIN ITS MANDATE, ECB ACTS INDEPENDENTLY, EURO IS IRREVERSIBLE
  • DRAGHI SAYS GOVERNMENTS MUST BE READY TO ACTIVATE EFSF, ESM
  • DRAGHI SAYS NEED STRICT CONDITIONALITY
  • DRAGHI SAYS ECB TOOK DECISION ON COLLATERAL

 

 

1. FII  sold 13321  Contracts of Index Future,worth 296.25 cores  with net OI decreasing by  19877 contracts.

2. As Nifty Future was up by 7  points and OI has decreased by 19877,as per FII Derivative tables shows they continued with shorting the index futures.

3. NS closed at 5238 after making the  low of 5218 , and bounced till 5260 which was our resistance level as we have discussed yesterday. Today was 2 day Nifty has closed below 50 SMA which is a victory for Bears. We have trendline support at 5200 but lot of supply pressure on upside shows the weak structure of Nifty as every rise was getting sold near the resistane,which goes correct with our theory Sell on Rise

4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5260 and 5283 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5190 and 5166 .Trend is Sell on Rise till 5331 is not broken on closing basis.

5. Nifty September  OI is at 1.78 cores with an unwinding  of 9.44 Lakh in OI,so shorts which entered  the system yesterday got squared off today as we were unable to break 5200 but FII kept on shorting Interesting stuff? . Rollover range for September Series comes at 5400-5290.

6. Total F&O turnover was  0.80 lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 1.92  lakh.Cash market volumes were again dismal at 4.9 K cores.PCR at 0.88 and VIX 16.98

7.  5400 CE  is having highest OI of 70 lakhs with an addition of 5 lakhs in OI.5300 CE added 6 lakh in OI with net OI at65lakhs,so Bears are writing 5300 CE  and is immediate ceiling for market. 4900-5600 CE added 29 lakhs in OI.

8. 5200 PE added 4 lakh in OI and having the highest  OI at 73 lakhs so 5200 is firm base at the starting of September series.4900-5600 PE added just 21 lakhs in OI.Bulls added just 4 lakh in OI which indicate that 5200 is week support. Also a surprise addition of 10 lakhs in 4900 PE is interesting whether its smart money which is buying Puts or speculative money which bought thinking big disappointment of ECB meet.

9.FII  bought 166.58 cores and DII  sold 33 cores in cash segment,INR closed at 55.92  Live INR rate @ http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/).

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5200, Trend Changer at 5285 NF. (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).

Buy above 5260 Tgt 5280,5295 and 5315

Sell below 5208 Tgt 5190,5166 and 5150 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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2 thoughts on “FII F&O Data analysis for 7 Sep trade in Nifty Future

  1. Bramesh Post author

    Hi Manish,

    Thanks for your perspective !!

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  2. Manish

    Brilliant analysis. However just a point here as we have lined up many local and international events, holding longs would be a better strategy. Specially more so when most the bad news are already out and discounted too.

    In my opinion EU zone breakout on favourable annoucement could be begining of upward rally. Much awaited outcome could be begining of 2nd half rally which was predicted by lot of market gurus and pungers.

    Let us think about it as most of the time we lose out for late buying.

    Just something on fundamental side to enlighten us.

    Thanks once again for sharing a very good analysis.

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