Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Beginning 21 August

By | August 20, 2012
Nifty gained strength for the 3rd consecutive week as  inflation hitting 32 month lows,  but gave up gains  due to disappointing export-import data, release of the controversial CAG reports in the parliament & rising crude prices which have crossed 115$ per barrel. 
According to CAG report, financial benefit accrued to private companies due to non-transparent allocation instead of auction of coal blocks was pegged at Rs 1.86 lakh crore. Major Companies amongst those 25 named are Reliance Power, Essar Power, Hindalco, Tata Power, Tata Steel & Jindal Steel and Power.
This has once again casted doubts on the credibility of the Government Functioning which has already been dented to a great extent by the 2G Telecom scam.News on Friday that showed CBI has not chargsheeted Kalmadi in Commonwealth game has brought a new low in the credibility of Government of India. So expect lot of volatility in Equity markets for coming week.

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly Charts are forming symmetrical triangle with breakout above 5400 NS.Support now exists at 5340. Till Nifty is trading above 5340 which is 50 Hour SMA bullish momentum is intact.

Nifty Gaps

Nifty has formed the following 2 gaps in the range of  5077-5350

  • 5216-5260
  • 5043-5077

So these levels should be noted down carefully to find further support and resistance.

 

Nifty Daily Chart

Bulls were able to close above 5350 on weekly basis with a breakout above 5267.Range for Nifty is getting narrower each passing day,and breakout above 5400 or Fall below 5330 is on verge of happening. As seen in above chart the long term trendline which was acting as resistance provided support for Nifty at 5340 on Friday and we bounced back.

Negative Divergence have started emerging in Indicators from overbought levels which signals cautious for traders who are holding highly leverages position.Fall whenever it will come will be fast and furious.

Nifty Fibo Retracement

Nifty Fibonacci Retracements from 4770-5350 are drawn in above chart,Closer look at the same gives that Nifty has been consolidating in the range of 61.8% retracement at 5301 and 5400.Close is still above Golden Ratio of 5301 which shows Bulls are holding there ground.

 

Nifty Weekly Chart

Nifty was up 0.86% WoW basis,Unable to close above 5386 as discusses last week shows the supply pressure coming at higher levels.Nifty tried to breakout of falling trendline but unable to close above 5380 on closing basis, Also 100 WDMA of Nifty comes at 5380 so range of 5380-5400 remains crucial on Weekly closing basis.

Week Ending  28 Oct 2011 Nifty made a High of 5399.7 and on Week ending 17 August Nifty made a high of 5399.95, Now have a look at preceding candle after 28 Oct Nifty opened gapped down at 5358 made a high of 5360 and continued its fall till 4639. So be cautious at higher levels as Price always have history.

Theory gets invalidated on Weekly close above 5400.

 

Nifty Monthly Chart

 Close above 5217 is bullish for market for rest of year.Monthly Charts of Nifty is giving resistance at 5400 break of same will lead to a move till 5445.Support on Monthly charts comes at 5250

In Nutshell:Daily charts are giving a Sell on Rise sign till 5400 is not broken,Weekly charts are signalling Buy on dips with sl 5309 and Monthly chart closed above 5217 signalling August series to be bullish. So trade on time frame you follow ie. Daily,Weekly or Monthly

Range of 5380-5400 is a crucial range,Bulls unable to capture the same will lead to bears attacking and taking upperhand.

 

Nifty Trend Deciding Level:5400

Nifty Resistance:5428,5460 and 5500

Nifty Support:5341,5309 and 5260

 

Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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4 thoughts on “Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Beginning 21 August

  1. Bramesh Post author

    Hi Sir,

    All levels mentioned are of Nifty Spot.

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  2. Nambi

    Dear Mr Bramesh, I always read your great analysis. I would appreciate if you can mention NF for Nifty future and NS for Nifty Spot in future to avoid any minor confusion. This is just a suggestion. Thanks. Nambi

  3. Ravi

    Once again THX for your weekly analysis of Nifty
    Brgds
    Ravi

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