FII F&O Data analysis for August Expiry

By | August 29, 2012

Everyone was talking about 5600 Market is back below 5300.  This is what mass psychology is all about. Market always move in path of least resistance and path of least resistance looking at bullish environment created was on downside. Hence we have results in front of our eyes.

1. FII  sold 2041  Contracts of Index Future,worth 6 cores  with net OI decreasing by  19355 contracts.

2. As Nifty Future was down by 50  points and OI has decreased by 19355, FII have booked profit in longs, as the total OI is down by 19K and sell figure is just 6 cores meaning they sold longs and have shorted partially.

3. NS closed at 5288 after making the low of 5283 ,Bulls were under pressure from morning as they 5325  got broken on Nifty.Ahead of expiry breaking of 5300 is a danger for bulls as expiry pressure can bring a swift fall and gap filling till 5216 can take place.

4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5309 and 5329 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5266 and 5243 .Trend is Sell on Rise till 5329 is not broken on closing basis.

5. Nifty August OI is at 1.6 cores with an unwinding  of 41 Lakh in OI, but the same got rollovered to September Series.September Series OI is at 1.53 lakhs so 36 lakhs  got rollovered Longs are getting rollovered to next series.

6. Total F&O turnover was 1.70 lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 2.53  lakh,Breadth was terrible and stocks were falling like nine pins.

7.  5300 CE also saw an addition  of 14.6 lakhs with total OI now standing at 49 lakhs. 5300 CE has premium of Rs 15 and Call writers have added 14.6 lakhs OI, so 5300 will be immediate resistance for market tomorrow.

8. 5300 PE sheded 19 lakh in OI and having the OI at 76 lakhs put writers ran for cover as Nifty broke and closed below 5300.5200 PE is next support at per Option table as we have gap from 5266-5219 so do not be surprised if we see 5219 tommorow. As of now 5200 is sstrong base from market. FII have sold 771 cores in Options suggesting selling in Put options they were holding as hedge,Are we near reversal ?

9.FII  bought 143 cores and DII sold239 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.67  Live INR rate @ http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/).FII were again sellers of 579 cores in Stock futures.

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5299, Trend Changer at 5327 NF,Today as updated in FB page NF were consolidating near 5327-32 range before falling and we got early indication of fall as we traded 2 hours below 5327. For tomorrow this level will be tough resistance to crack. (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).

Buy above 5305 Tgt 5325,5340 and 5360

Sell below 5266 Tgt 5241,5219 and 5190 (Nifty Spot Levels)

 

Expiry Range on Upside :5327

Expiry Range on Downside :5241

 

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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