Remember, the people in pain, will be subjected to more pain during expiry. So, this month, bears are in pain, and there might be more pain for them around expiry. For this assumption to change, look for long liquidation in huge volumes in the FII OI figures.
1. FII bought 15439 Contracts of Index Future,worth 433 cores with net OI increasing by huge 69021 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 16 points and OI has increased by 69021, FII have created fresh longs in index futures ahead of expiry. FII buying is quiet visible even though Mid caps and small cap Index were down by 1.1.5% NF was down by just 16 points.
3. NS closed at 5335 after making the low of 5313 near to our 2 tgt of 5313,Bulls were under pressure from morning as they 5341 got broken on Nifty.Bears were unable to break the crucial support of 5313 which also is the low for today, shows next 2 days Bulls can be on roar if 5300 is not broken tomorrow.
4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5361 and 5392 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5313 and 5294 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5325 is not broken on closing basis.
5. Nifty August OI is at 2.0 cores with an unwinding of 32 Lakh in OI, but the same got rollovered to September Series.September Series OI is at 1.16 lakhs so 32 lakhs got rollovered and 24 lakh extra addition in OI. Longs are getting rollovered to next series.
6. Total F&O turnover was 1.73 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.66 lakh,Volumes were quiet high today looking at brutal fall we have seen in mid caps stocks Adani,JIndals.
7. 5300 CE also saw an addition of 5 lakhs with total OI now standing at 34 lakhs. 5400 CE saw an addition of 18 lakhs and total OI stands at 85 lakhs so 5400 CE writers are assuming Nifty will expire below 5400 and they can eat the whole premium,5400 is immediate ceiling for the market.
8. 5300 PE sheded 12 lakh in OI and having the OI at 95 lakhs which suggests traders are getting little jittery that 5300 will not break in August Expiry.5400 PE unwounded 13 Lakh in OI. So as NF closed below 5400 third day running, and Put writers got jittery as Nifty came near 5313. 5300 seems a strong base and 5400 strong resistance for next 2 days.FII net sold 877 cores in Options suggesting profit booking in Put option as they saw a huge unwinding of 25 lakhs basically in 5300 and 5400 PE.
9.FII bought 93 cores and DII sold 314 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.6 Live INR rate @ http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/).FII were again sellers of 551 cores in Stock futures.
10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5328, Trend Changer at 5327 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
Buy above 5344 Tgt 5361,5386 and 5401
Sell below 5309 Tgt 5289,5266 and 5240 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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