FII Derivative Data Analysis for 24 August Trade in Nifty Future

By | August 23, 2012

Nifty has rallied 3.8% in August Series, many analyst including me have pointed out the dismal volume we are seeing,but it should not deter trades to take long calls reasong being  Low volume is reason to doubt the strength of the rally, but you buy bread with realized gains, not doubts or durability.Volumes are low but that’s not going to affect whether or not individuals buy or sell equities at the quoted price. Unless you’re throwing around Buffett-level money, there’s ample liquidity to buy or sell your entire portfolio. So just based on volumes do not deter to take longs follow the trading system and be on the right side of trade.

1. FII  bought just 13  Contracts of Index Future  ,worth -3.75 cores  with net OI increasing by 19907 contracts.So again we have this weird figure of buying of contract but total figure coming in negative. Exchanges should look into this technical glitch. Last time it happened on 30July

2. As Nifty Future was down by 4  points and OI has increased by 19907, looking at my data sheet it suggests FII are just doing day trading and holding on to there positional longs.

3. NS closed at 5415 after making the high of 5448, I have discussed yesterday NS has resistance of 5446 and Nifty made a 2 point high and reversed back. Bulls successfully manged to close nifty above 5400 for 3 day in row in-spite of bad global cues which suggests strength. Today we made a low of 5394 which is almost equal to yesterday low of 5295 and it gives a possibility of double bottom which is a bullish pattern.

4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5448 and 5467 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5395 and 5366 .Trend is still buy on Dips till 5284 is not broken on closing basis.

5. Nifty August OI is at 2.58 cores with an unwinding  of 2.76 Lakh in OI, longs were unwounded  by Retailers and HNI. Tomorrow being a Weekly closing and if we are able to close above 5400 it will be a good sign entering into expiry week.

6. Total F&O turnover was 1.29 lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 2.2  lakh,Cash volumes rose by 10% suggesting all dips are getting bought into.

7.  5300 CE also saw an unwinding  of 1.45  lakhs with total OI now standing at 29 lakhs,Call Writers ran for cover. 5400 CE saw an  unwinding  of 2.68  lakhs and total OI stands at 63 lakhs so 5400 CE writers are also unwinding, 5500 CE still having  highest OI of 1.02 core lakhs,with fresh addition of 2.6 lakhs in OI.

8. 5300 PE unwounded  8 lakh in OI and having the OI at 99 lakhs which suggests traders are getting confident that 5300 will not break in August Expiry.5400 PE also unwounded 2.3 Lakh in OI. So we saw unwinding in both calls and puts today interesting to see how market behaves tomorrow.

9.FII  bought 311 cores and DII sold 161 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.14  Live INR rate @ http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/).FII has bought 7620 Cr in cash market in August series.

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5362, Trend Changer at 5319 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).

Buy above 5422 Tgt 5447,5467 and 5500

Sell below 5393 Tgt 5366,5350 and 5319 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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