IIP data came in -1.8% worse than expectation,reminding us that Indian Macros are rotting. So now we have typical situation Major Brokerages are downgrading Indian GDP data, India twin deficit are increasing still markets have been rallying from 5033 Nifty. This question troubles many traders how come market go up when things are looking so bad.
Well market in short term are always driven by liquidity and fundamentals will take their course in due course of action but in short term its always a liquidity driven rally so whatever be your thought process if you are going against the trend and sympathizing yourself with excuses we just discussed you are on the way of becoming a losing trader. Trade with system and keep your emotions out when you sit on your trading desk to avoid such trading mistakes.
1. FII bought 3180 Contracts of NF ,worth 27.23 cores with net OI increasing by 9422 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 5 points and OI has increased by 9422 , we are getting first indication FII have started shorting the index futures in a conservative manner.
3. NS closed at 5223 after making a high of 5368,High made yesterday was 5378 so Nifty is unable to confirm the pattern of higher highs after forming gravestone doji yesterday.As discussed earlier the range of 5350-80 is supply zone,cannot be broken in single attempt. Bulls are trying from past 2 days to close Nifty above 5350 but are failing each time suggesting weakness in price and eventual dip till 5260 can come in next 2 days.
4. We did discussed yesterday 5314 being an important support based on 64 points rule and Nifty did follow it today and we made a low of 5312 and bounced back. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5350 and after that 5380 which needs to be watched closely ,Support now exists at 5312 ,Below 5260 gap filling will start till 5216 .We have weekly closing tomorrow and nifty needs to close above 5284 to keep the momentum going ahead.Trend is still buy on Dips till 5209 is not broken on closing basis.
5. Nifty August OI is at 2.39 cores with an addition of 2.7 Lakh in OI, shorts were added by Retailers and HNI. We have SBI coming with results tomorrow so trade bank nifty with caution. Bharti is trading at 2 years low and now SBI if it comes with bad results It would be diffcult for nifty to cross 5350 on closing basis.
6. Total F&O turnover was 1.03 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 2.4 lakh.
7. 5400 CE saw an addition of 6 lakhs and total OI stands at 77 lakhs making immediate ceiling for market, 5500 CE 3.6 lakhs got unwinded still having highest OI of 85 lakhs, 5300 CE also saw an unwinding of 0.9 lakhs with total OI now standing at 39 lakhs, 4900-5500 CE saw an added of 0.5 lakhs in OI suggesting bears are getting warmed up.
8. On Put side 5000 PE saw an unwinding of 0.9 lakhs,immediate support of Nifty as total OI has crosses 1 core.4900-5500 PE added total of 2.6 lakhs in OI.5300 PE added 1.7 lakh in OI suggesting market participants are seeing nifty staying above 5300.
9.FII bought 337 cores and DII sold 754 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 55.41 Live INR rate @ http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/).
10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5269, Trend Changer at 5259 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
Buy above 5334 Tgt 5355,5380 and 5400
Sell below 5312 Tgt 5286,5260 and 5240 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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