FII Derivative Data Analysis for July 2012 Expiry

By | July 26, 2012

July series will come to an end and will be an non event series, We predicted this on 11 June  ( Click on Link) based on the OI and historical data.

June series Nifty expired at 5149 and now we are trading at 5110 so in 19 trading session we have moved just 39 points in this freaky global scenario 😉

So where do we expire now Is the million dollar question, let’s try to find the answers of the same

 

1. FII  sold 18909 Contracts of NF ,worth 447  cores with net OI decreasing by 4673 contracts.

2. As Nifty Future was down by 22 points and OI has decreased by 4673 contracts  means FII had shorted in small quatity, FII data 2 days before expiry is dicey and nothing much should be read into it . FII futures data is irrespective of rollover.

3. NS made a low of 5076 and closed at 5110.As we discussed yesterday shorts below 5090 should be taken and 1 tgt was 5076 and NS made low of 5075 and bounced back. Close was above 200 DMA of 5103 which is a good news for Bulls. Till NS trades above 200 DMA Bulls are in control of market.Today’s fall till 5090 can be termed as a false breakdown if market rallies from today or tomorrow.

4. Resistance for Nifty has come up to 5150  which needs to be watched closely tomorrow,Support now exists at 5090-5075 if 5075 gets taken out we will have very week expiry. Bulls will have life only above 5150.

5. Nifty July OI is at 1.23 cores with an unwinding of 46 Lakh in OI,Rollovers have started in NF and  43 lakhs got rollovered to August series. As Nifty was down by 22  points with addition in OI  shorts were added by retailers and HNI.

6. Total F&O turnover was 1.81  lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 3 lakh.

7.  5200 CE saw an huge addition  of 8 lakhs and total OI stands at 79 lakhs  and immediate resistance.

8. On Put side 5100 PE saw an unwinding  of 9 lakhs,immediate support at 5100. So expiry should be between 5100-5200. If we see a dip below 5100 it should be used to buy into with Sl as 5072

9.FII  sold 109 cores and DII bought 38  cores in cash segment.INR closed at 56.24  Live INR rate @ http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/).

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5100, Trend Changer at 5255 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).

Buy above 5129 Tgt 5150,5167 and 5181

Sell below 5090 Tgt 5075,5050 and 5020 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Expiry Range on Upper Side:5154

Expiry Range on Downside:5065

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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