FII Derivative Data Analysis for 20 June trade in Nifty Future

By | June 19, 2012

 

IMF crisis fund swells to 6bn as BRIC nations pledge cash.India Donates 10 Billion USD and China Donated 43 Billion USD, Indian is running a Current and Fiscal Account Deficit  and China is unable to revive its economy but donating money to IMF. This kind of political mockery by China and India should be questioned by people. 10 Billion USD if spent on India infrastructure projects can help to kick start the economic engine.

Another important news event was The terms of Greece’s bailout will be renegotiated, according to a senior EU official, as the worsening situation there makes the original agreement “an illusion.” Anyone who believes differently “is delusional.So Germany resistance is slowly paving down, and we are returning to ground reality

1. FII  sold 8534 Contracts of NF ,worth 253  cores with net OI increasing by 18386 contracts.

2. As Nifty Future was up by 51  points and OI has increased by 18836contracts  means FII on net to net basis have initiated  fresh  longs in Index futures.

3. Nifty is still Buy on Dip till 4992 is not broken,if one observe closely the support are rising fast on daily basis, so nifty bulls will try to push index higher and a directional move can materialize, Today high was 5113 just short of 5115 which is an important Fibo level.Any move above 5159 will make nifty move to 5200 on the same day and going by current momentum it can happen this week. So 5159 is a level to watch.

4. As 50 DMA@5064 and 200 DMA@5073 and Nifty has closed above this 2 levels. The move above 200 DMA is the 4 one in past 2 weeks and lowest low is seen as 5015 which means Bulls are stronger at lower levels and using dips to buy.

5. Nifty June OI is at 1.63 cores  with an unwinding  of 1.18 lakhs in OI, Bears have shorted the index in anticipation of further fall have covered after we rose above 5100.

6. Total F&O turnover was 1.52  lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 3.7 lakh, As we discussed yesterday fall was technical in nature and bulls should be back  everthough S&P downgraded India from Stable to negative.

7.  5000 CE saw an unwinding of 5.4 lakhs and 5100 CE of June saw an addition  of 5.5 Lakhs  as Bulls were unable to conquer 5115 ,5200 and 5300 CE has seen massive writing of  10 lakhs. Ceiling has increased to 5200 on Higher end.So if we make another attempt to 5200  and no unwinding seen in 5200 CE we can book profits.

8. On Put side 4800 PE is having highest OI of 87 lakhs making 4800 a strong base,4700-5100 PE has added 19 lakhs in OI so base building is happening at 5000 PE

9.FII  sold 93 cores and DII sold 278  cores in cash segment. INR closed at 56.05  Live INR rate @ http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/)

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 4965, Trend Changer at 5005 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).

Buy above 5115 Tgt 5130,5159and 5189

Sell below 5089 Tgt 5064,5042 and 5015 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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